Week 1 MOTW: Matsuzaka vs. Greinke
April 06, 2007
A new season means a new look at The Hook. Starting today, we'll be bringing you the same great content you've gotten for the past four years. However, rather than giving you the one huge column that you're used to, we're breaking it down to make it easier for you to find what you're looking for! To go along with this change, we'll now be writing The Hook for you three times a week instead of once. Just find what you're looking for in the categorical menu on the right!
One of the new things we're going to be doing each week with The Hook this year is analyzing a matchup of the week, rather than the old Line of the Week. In doing so, we're going to take a look back at one of the better pitching duels throughout the week and breakdown both starters. We'll give full scouting reports based on each pitcher's performance that particular night and highlight what to watch for from them in the future. We're starting this week with a matchup between the most hyped starting pitcher entering Spring Training (Daisuke Matsuzaka) and a kid with a world of promise who we'd all like to see get back on track (Zack Greinke).
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Arsenal
92-94 MPH Four-Seam Fastball
87-89 MPH Two-Seam Fastball (+ Movement tailing away from lefties)
88-90 MPH Splitter (Out pitch #1)
82-86 MPH Hard, Late Breaking Slider (Out pitch #2)
76-78 MPH Circle Change
Breakdown: Matsuzaka was constantly attacking the zone last night, and seemed to get ahead of virtually every hitter he faced. This allowed him to work to his strength (wide array of pitches) later in the count as he was able to force Kansas City to chase a lot and get themselves out. Even when he fell behind, he looked confident throwing any pitch in any count because of his outstanding command.
He mixed his pitches extremely well, changing speeds at will. He also showed a tremendous ability to change the hitter's eye level, further baffling the Kansas City lineup. Matsuzaka frequently worked both sides of the plate and had little trouble keeping the ball down last night. However, when he wanted to, he looked comfortable enough elevating his fastball to make it look even harder.
In fact, that was one of the nastiest things about watching Matsuzaka carve the Royals up. He can really bring the gas, and loved to go up the ladder late in the count. However, he'd counter that by coming through with his diving slider if they didn't chase. His slider broke very late and broke extremely hard, diving away from right-handers. The rotation that he was putting on the ball would seemingly allow the ball to remain in the strike zone until about five feet in front of the plate and still end up in the dirt by the time the batter was swinging over it. His splitter had a nice sharp 12 to 6 trajectory and had plenty behind it in the high 80's.
If there's a way to get to him (and I assure you there is), the Royals weren't taking advantage of it last night, and it's a way that may attack the philosophy so many teams are trying to adapt in the past decade. This isn't to say that he was enamored with starting hitters with first pitch fastballs. Matsuzaka actually threw 16 breaking balls (11 strikes) and 10 fastballs (8 strikes) to start hitters out. If a pitcher like him gets ahead in the count to 19 of the 26 batters he faces, though, the opposition is in trouble. The only safe thing here is that Matsuzaka's throwing a strike to start you off, so you want to be ready to attack, particularly if it's a fastball.
All in all, he looked extremely tough, and should be a force as a front of the rotation starter this season. He has outstanding stuff, terrific command, and is very cerebral out on the hill. If you're laying off that first pitch strike, you're playing into his hand.
Zack Greinke
Arsenal
91-93 Four-Seam Fastball
87-89 Two-Seam Fastball
82-84 Splitter
70-76 12-8 Curve
81-83 Circle Change
Breakdown: Entering 2007, we don't really know what to expect from Greinke. Formerly heralded as one of the top prospects in baseball, Greinke came up and had immediate success in 2004 before having a miserable sophomore showing in 2005. Rumors were abound that his poor 2005 performance had a great deal to do with the fact that he missed over half of last season with undisclosed personal problems. Though it was mentioned as recently as December that Greinke wouldn't really have a shot at the rotation to begin the year, he earned his spot as the Royals third starter by posting a 3.00 ERA and a ridiculous 27:2 K:BB ratio in Spring Training. The big question, however, was which Greinke we would end up seeing now that the games matter. Would we see the confident kid who blew his way through to the majors when he was 20 years old or would we see the former phenom who set his development back two years in 2005?
All indications are that Greinke's back, though this was only one start. Greinke certainly had his struggles yesterday, particularly with the leadoff man. Though he retired Julio Lugo to begin the game, the Red Sox leadoff man reached base in six of Greinke's seven innings. He also seemed to struggle getting that first pitch over for a strike, though he would live up to the billing (an outstanding control pitcher a la Greg Maddux) as the count wore on. Greinke walked just one hitter (Kevin Youkilis in the first... borderline call on a 3-2 count) in the game, though pitching from behind did allow Boston's hitters to look for the fastball.
As for the fastball, he was spotting it dead on late in the count. He painted the corners consistently and used his two-seamer to run the ball away from lefties. He dominated the lefthanders in the Red Sox lineup, notching six of his seven strikeouts against them while allowing just one hit in twelve chances. He destroyed one of the better pure hitters in the game, David Ortiz, striking him out all three times that he faced him. Two of Ortiz' strikeouts were looking, including a tailing fastball and a backdoor breaking ball. Five of Greinke's seven strikeouts were looking, which shows how deceptive he can be when he's on.
Against righthanders, Greinke didn't fare nearly as well. Again, pitching from behind in the count seemed to get to him here. His breaking ball looked sharp and he was spotting it fairly well, but his fastball got tagged a few times.
As he allowed the leadoff man to reach in six of seven innings, we got to see Greinke throw from the stretch a lot yesterday. If possible, he actually seemed more comfortable pitching from the stretch than he did from a full windup.
Like Matsuzaka, Greinke seemed to like going to his breaking ball to start hitters off. Unlike Matsuzaka, he wasn't nearly as successful with his strike rate in that situation. He did show plenty of confidence throwing any pitch in any count, though, which should bode well for him as the season wears on.
All around, Greinke had his moments where he looked flat-out dominant. He had others where he looked lost on the hill, but managed to show plenty of composure as he bore down and got the job done. It's easy to forget that he's still just 23 years old, as he began his big league career in 2004. Expect him to rebound bigtime from his lost 2005 and earn value as a middle to back end starter in fantasy leagues for 2007. If he's sitting on your waiver wire in a keeper league, don't hold off beyond this start. If you're in a standard single-season league, take the gamble if you have a sure player to drop. Don't worry about the fact that he's on the Royals.
Starting Sunday, we'll be running a poll for next week's Matchup of the Week so that you can choose the pitchers you'd like to hear a report on.
Fantasy Baseball 
