Week 4 MOTW: Jake Peavy vs. Brandon Webb
April 30, 2007
Be sure to vote in this week's poll on the message forum to help us decide who which matchup we'll profile next week!
In a matchup I'll gladly bill as last year's NL Cy Young award winner against my preseason pick for this season's, we had a clear winner for the Matchup of the Week last week. While neither pitcher ended up factoring in the decision, neither disappointed either. In fact, we came just inches away from seeing history in Wednesday's game....
Of Note
- Jake Peavy was lit up by the Diamondbacks last season, going 1-2 with a 5.71 ERA and 1.67 WHIP. While he picked up the win against Arizona in the previous week, he had by far his worst outing of the season, allowing five runs on ten hits in 5.1 innings.... While Peavy is tough on everyone, he has allowed a .245 average to left-handed hitters in his career as opposed to just .228 against righties. Furthermore, he's much more prone to giving up dingers to southpaws, as he was touched up for 16 homers by lefties in 2007, though he allowed just 7 in considerably more chances against right-handers.... Peavy's ERA is nearly a run better at home than it has been on the road in his career, including a difference of 0.82 last season. Not having those deep fences outside of Petco has gotten to him in the past.
- Brandon Webb has had a bit of a rough go of it with the Padres himself. He's 3-5 lifetime against San Diego with a 3.66 ERA and 1.31 WHIP. Last season, he struggled more than he did in the past, allowing a 5.29 ERA while going 2-2 in five tries.... Webb's lefty-righty splits are considerably more pronounced than Peavy's, as he's allowed a .274 average to left-handed hitters in his career as opposed to just .215 to righties. He's also allowed 49 homers to lefties in his career as opposed to just 18 by righties. Load up on the lefties when you're facing him, and you have a much better chance... Though he pitches in a park that plays extremely well for hitters, Webb has been marginally better at home throughout his career. His style (heavy sinker pitcher) fits perfectly with a park that makes pitchers beg for groundballs.
Jake Peavy
Arsenal
91-95 Four Seam Fastball
83-89 3/7 Slider
81-83 1/6 Curveball
87-89 Two Seam Fastball
We got to see the curve a few times in this one, though he was almost exclusive with his fastball and slider. In truth, he didn't look like he needed the curve very often.
I've watched Peavy pitch quite a few times over the years, but something looked different about him Wednesday night. He's always shown that he has the smarts to finish hitters on the hill, but he seems to have amped things up a notch, which could have something to do with the fact that he now sits alongside Greg Maddux in the dugout quite a bit. Peavy absolutely put on a clinic Wednesday, and was showing that he doesn't just get hitters to chase when he's ahead, but he can use those "wasted" pitches when he's ahead in the count to set hitters up. There were at least five instances in the game where he had a batter in the hole, buzzed him with a fastball up and in, and then just flat burned him with his slider.
Apart from that, Peavy almost looked like a closer who had the stamina to throw 117 pitches. He was constantly on the attack, throwing first pitch strikes to twelve of the first fourteen batters he faced. As I'm sure everyone knows by now, he struck out nine consecutive batters from the second through the fourth inning, and probably should have gotten the benefit of a call against Eric Byrnes to tie Tom Seaver's record of ten. He had little trouble challenging hitters with his fastball, in part because the Diamondbacks simply didn't look like they could catch up with it. The other primary thing that made him look like a closer is that he was pretty much sticking it to the opposition with just two (albeit absolutely dominant) pitches. Just 6 of 25 batters he faced managed to put the ball in play, and even they looked lucky to do so.
While the velocity of his fastball certainly makes him tough to hit, it's the movement that makes it nearly impossible. His two-seamer busts in on right-handers, meaning that even if they do manage to make contact, they'll be lucky if they don't shatter their bat and just make weak contact. He spots his four-seamer extremely well, and he loves to get ahead on the outside corner. If you're trying to pull Peavy, you might as well give up. You have to take him the other way if you're going to make any kind of solid contact.
The fastball is all well and good, but he needs something to complement it, and his slider Wednesday night looked as good as any I've seen all season. It was just flat-out unfair. When it's on, Peavy's slider starts out at the belt and stays that way until just a few feet in front of the plate before ending up in on a left-handed hitter's front ankle. It's absolutely devastating on left-handed hitters, and righties' eyes start to light up as they think they're getting a batting practice fastball before it just disappears at the last second. The best thing you can do with the slider is lay off of it, but he's shown that he can consistently throw it for strikes if he has to as well.
While Peavy's curve is nothing all that special, it still serves as a terrific change of pace. It's really his only off-speed pitch, as he can (and did) throw the slider in the high 80s regularly. Like the slider, he does bring quite a bit of a drop in with his curve and he can throw it for strikes in any count. He only threw the curve about five times all game, though.
As for his performance, he simply looked like a man among boys (he literally looked like a Hall of Famer pitching to a Little Leaguer in each of his three strikeouts of Carlos Quentin) Wednesday. His stuff was simply too good, and what's more, he showed continued improvement in absolutely carving up hitters by setting them up.
To top things off, Peavy showed his athleticism off the mound in a few different instances as well. He had a heads up play in the first inning on the second (and final) hit he allowed to nab a sliding Orlando Hudson at third. He would later follow with a hit (beyond the diving Hudson) in the fifth that may have been some of the best contact the Padres got off of Webb all night. He then easily took second after a pitch barely got away from Arizona Catcher Chris Snyder. Occasionally used to pinch hit and pinch run, Peavy can do it all.
If there's a weakness with Peavy (and this may sound ridiculous), it is that he's spending too many pitches setting up hitters. He was dominant enough Wednesday so that the Diamondbacks didn't get a runner past second base. He only allowed five baserunners all night. However, he threw 117 pitches in seven innings to do so. While it may actually hurt his fantasy value a bit because it would cut his strikeout volume, Peavy would be better served to pitch to contact a little more often and be more economical. That may just be something he can learn from the master, Maddux.
While I had him down as the number two starting pitcher in fantasy leagues heading into the season (and still do), this was by far the best pitching performance of the young season.... and we've already covered the top pitcher (Johan Santana).
Line: ND, 7 IP, 2 H, 3 BB, 0 R, 0 ER, 16 K, 9 Consecutive K from Innings 2-4
Brandon Webb
Arsenal
88-91 Sinker
80-82 Changeup
72-75 12/6 Curve
While I watched the game fully expecting to see one pitcher be heavily reliant on just two pitches, Webb surprised me by using all three of his pitches quite a bit. Known for his tremendous sinker, Webb showed it off from the get-go, getting an outstanding professional hitter like Brian Giles to drive the ball right into the ground for a weak double play to end the first inning.
Webb has always tried to mix other pitches in with his sinker, but it's well known that the pitch is his absolute bread and butter. No pitcher in baseball is more heavily reliant on one pitch than Webb, yet he's so good with that pitch that he's already won a Cy Young award. As he continues to mix in that curveball and changeup (which we'll get to) more often, Webb only figures to improve because hitters won't be able to sit on the sinker anymore.
As for the sinker, it's everything you've heard about it and more. For starters, he uses a nice, easy downward throwing motion that gives the ball a natural dive. It dives in on right-handers while sinking, breaking in almost like a two-seamer. However, it can start out at chest level, come down around the belt as it approaches the plate, and suddenly end up just over the dirt by the time it reaches the catcher's mitt. Because it's thrown almost like a natural two-seamer (and is Webb's fastball equivalent), it has outstanding velocity that can touch the low 90s. It drops hard, it breaks in, and the sink is heavier than what you're going to get from any pitcher in baseball. Lefties have to take him the other way if they're going to do anything with his sinker, while right-handers are just begging to be jammed any time they swing at it.
Webb's changeup is difficult to read because it doesn't drop in like the sinker you're expecting. He has good movement on it, and seems to almost cut it at times. It's primary function is to change the eye level of the hitters, meaning that if you're seeing a change, it's probably up and it's probably not in the strike zone. While it's effective in that way, if he can learn to spot it a little better, it could become a very useful pitch for him down the road.
After seeing the hard breaking ball in his sinker, it's nearly impossible to wait on Webb's curve. He can mix it up in the low 70s at times, bringing a drastic 18-20 MPH difference between that and his sinker. Like the sinker, it has a fantastic downward trajectory, though it doesn't break from right to left much at all. That's actually key to his success, though, as it's effective against both left-handers and right-handers.
For most of the game, it looked like Webb was going to be the hard-luck loser. He gave up back to back hits to lead to the Padres' first run in the second inning before leaving a sinker up on the outer half to Terrmel Sledge for his only real mistake. Webb showed, in a sense, how pitchers don't have to strike out half the known universe to be fantastic. He was economical, throwing just 106 pitches in eight strong innings while busting out an absolutely ridiculous 16:2 groundball to flyball ratio. While he didn't strike out the sixteen that Peavy did, he still fanned six, using all three of his pitches to finish hitters.
Webb remains a top ten fantasy starter because he does fool enough hitters to strike out 150+ while he throws a ton of ground balls in front of one of the better defensive infields in the National League. His economic use of his pitches helps improve his durability, which means that his terrific ERA and WHIP help out a little more than most fantasy starters' will, as well.
Line: ND, 8 IP, 6 H, 1 BB, 2 R, 2 ER, 6 K, 1 HR, 16:2 GB:FB Ratio
Fantasy Baseball 
Well, he does. His sinker acts as a two-seamer. He doesn't really throw any type of straight fastball, but when you're gunning a sinker at about 90 MPH, do you really need a four-seamer?