The Hook

Week 7 MOTW: Tim Lincecum vs. Roy Oswalt

We've had some tough decisions as to what the Matchup of the Week would be in recent weeks, but there really wasn't as much of a competition for last week's game. Before the two square off again (Tuesday evening), we'll get our scouting report of last week's matchup up for your viewing pleasure.

The most hyped rookie pitcher heading into 2007, Tim Lincecum, has been noted for his slight build, his violent delivery, and his absolutely dominant stuff. He features an overpowering fastball and a nasty 12/7 curveball that hitters seem to have a nearly impossible time measuring. Though he started just 11 games in the minors prior to receiving the call when Russ Ortiz hit the disabled list, the baby faced University of Washington product appears to have done everything he can in the minors. He had a 46:11 strikeout to walk ratio and a 0.29 ERA in five starts for AAA Fresno before receiving the call.

His opponent would be another pitcher who had some of the same criticisms earlier in his career, perennial Cy Young candidate Roy Oswalt of the Astros. Like Lincecum, Oswalt has a very slight build. He's just 6'0, 185, while Lincecum is 5'11, 170. Also like Lincecum, Oswalt was noted at times early in his career for having kind of a violent delivery and not holding back. He's since altered his delivery a bit, dropping down a bit more. He's also learned that, as the ace of his staff, it's more important for him to throw some more ground balls and work deeper into ballgames as he's hit veteran status. Is this something Lincecum will learn as he matures? We'll see.

Tim Lincecum

Arsenal
94-98 Four Seam Fastball
79-84 Curveball
86-87 Changeup

First off, let me say that everything you've heard about Lincecum's delivery is true. My arm hurt every time I saw him throw a pitch. He takes a long stride forward with his front foot, modeled largely after one of his idols, Sandy Koufax. He opens up quite a bit as he strides, making it look like there's even more coming at a hitter. As he starts toward his release point, Lincecum almost reaches back six inches behind his right shoulder to get a little something extra on every pitch before coming straight over the top of his shoulder. It looks almost like his elbow is going to snap every time he releases a pitch. He then brings his throwing arm back across his body a bit on the follow through. In short, while his delivery will, at times, make it even more difficult for hitters to pick up what's coming at them, there are also some serious indicators in his delivery that he's going to end up with shoulder problems, elbow problems, or both. As for his stuff.....

His fastball is fantastic. Not only does he absolutely gun it up there (he hit 98 on the gun just once, but consistently hit 97 throughout the game), but it has tremendous movement, riding left to right. He uses that to run his heater in on right-handed hitters, while he also has more than enough life on his fastball to elevate it when necessary. Even though Lincecum is short (5'11) for a pitcher, his pitches all tend to have nice downward movement because of his straight overhand release.

While he can certainly rely on the fastball when necessary, Lincecum's curveball seems to be his bread and butter. He'll throw it in any count, and it absolutely drops off the table about three feet in front of the plate. The difference in speed (he generally throws it 15-20 MPH slower than his fastball) makes it awfully difficult to time, particularly after he's just blown a 97 MPH fastball right by you. This will likely be his out pitch for years to come, but what makes it an even more difficult pitch to hit is that he can throw it early in the count for strikes when he wants to. There's not much in the way of right to left break, though he did have a few times where he cut it to give it almost a 12/8 look.

One spot where Lincecum showed that he's mature beyond his 22 years was his second time through the lineup. Lincecum didn't throw a single changeup during his first time through the Astro lineup, but he added a new wrinkle and started attacking with it his second time through. The strange thing is, as powerful as his fastball was and as dominant as his curve looked at times, his changeup may have been the best pitch he showed all night. The Houston hitters were completely fooled by it, particularly as they'd seen nothing but the heat and the curve early on.

He only ended up throwing the change six times throughout the game, but man was it nasty. There wasn't much of a difference in arm speed, but unlike the fastball, which he seemed to enjoy elevating, his changeup acted almost like a slow screwball. It had outstanding late life away from left-handed hitters while it dove almost as much as his curveball without the slight arc to start the pitch. The filthy sinking change could be devastating as he continues to mature into the ace that he can become.

If there's one complaint (other than the fact that his delivery scares the bejeezus out of me), it's that he's very slow to the plate when runners are on. This led to the only run Lincecum would allow. After he walked Lance Berkman in the fourth, Berkman stole second completely off of Lincecum. Bengie Molina should probably have just eaten the ball, Berkman probably would have beaten even a perfect throw by a couple of steps. Instead, Molina tried to make something happen that wasn't there and threw the ball into centerfield, putting Berkman on third with one out. Carlos Lee's sac fly to center knocked Berkman in, which was really the only blemish on Lincecum's start.

As for positives, his stuff obviously leads to high strikeout totals. Lincecum fanned ten in his seven innings of work, making several pretty solid professional hitters look foolish at times. As the game wore on, he found ways to stay effective while keeping his pitch count down a bit more, keeping his pitches down in the zone so that the Astro hitters couldn't do much of anything with them.

To hit his ceiling, Lincecum's going to have to learn to go to that style he used late in the game a little more often. There's no need to strike out every hitter, and there's simply no need for a starting pitcher to be going at 110 percent on every pitch. Regardless, he's pretty darned good already, and that's something that's not going to change any time soon.

Line: ND, 7 IP, 2 H, 1 BB, 1 R, 0 ER, 10 K

Roy Oswalt

Arsenal
92-96 Four Seam Fastball
86-89 Slider
68-74 Curveball
84-87 Changeup

Once upon a time, Oswalt was a big strikeout pitcher. This isn't to say that he doesn't have the stuff he had when he was younger, but simply that he's evolved. Oswalt thrives on making hitters go after his pitch at this point in his career, as he's proud of the fact that he's the ace of the staff and loves to do one of the things that the ace of any staff should do... keep his bullpen rested.

In order to make hitters go after his pitches, getting ahead in the count is an absolute must. Oswalt started 19 of the 26 batters he faced off with a first pitch strike, and a handful of the seven 1-0 counts he faced could have gone either way. He did throw 21 pitches in the first inning, but that was really more because Randy Winn had a 10 pitch at bat to begin the inning in which he fouled five pitches off. The rest of Oswalt's start was vintage.

Again, this may have been the best starter for Lincecum to face so early in his career and (as mentioned) the two will square off again Tuesday evening. Over the years, Oswalt has learned that, not only is his fastball strong enough to mess with hitters at 92, but taking a little off of it helps him command it a little better. Oswalt spots his fastball with the best of them, which is part of the reason that you rarely see him behind in the count to any hitter. He did reach back at a couple of key moments to touch 95 and 96 on the gun.

The most important pitch in his arsenal is that looping curveball, which he can throw from anywhere between 68 and 74 MPH. While I'm sure that sounds extremely slow to many of you, what's more important is the difference in speeds between his fastball and his curveball. The difference between Oswalt's fastest pitch (96) Thursday and his slowest (68, four times) is a ridiculous 28 MPH. It makes it nearly impossible to sit on any pitch. Oswalt's command of his curveball wasn't as outstanding as it usually is Thursday, but he still mixed it in quite a bit throughout the game.

Oswalt's slider doesn't have the nasty downward break of some of the pitchers we've covered in past weeks, but it does have a nice sharp rotation. It ducks a little, giving it almost a 3/8 break. More importantly, he uses it predominantly against lefties and likes to get right in under the hands with the pitch, something he did twice to Giants' slugger Barry Bonds over the course of his seven innings. It's not his out pitch from a strikeout perspective, but it's extremely effective at inducing weak contact from lefties.

Like Lincecum, we could almost count how many changeups Oswalt threw on one hand. It had solid movement down and away to left-handed hitters, and he had little trouble locating it. Oswalt's change didn't have nearly the dominant movement that Lincecum's did, but it served as another effective pitch because he commanded it well and because it gave him yet another way to throw off the hitters' timing.

Apart from the 21 pitch first, Oswalt was very good, if not great. He carried a no-hitter into the sixth inning before finally allowing consecutive infield singles. Of the other two hits that he would allow, one was a texas leaguer that just ended up being perfectly placed. Only Pedro Feliz had a real solid single against him. Regardless, it would be hard to say Oswalt's performance was great because his command of all four of his pitches looked a little off. Oswalt walked a couple and saw his pitch count climb up over 100 in seven innings, which (for him) is a bit earlier than he hits the century mark. He remains a bona fide fantasy ace and should for at least the next five years.

Line: ND, 7 IP, 4 H, 2 BB, 0 R, 0 ER, 6 K

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