Pair of Top Prospects Fall Again
June 27, 2007
While the seasons of Matt Cain and Anthony Reyes have been drastically different from a statistical angle, they've both been equally as disappointing in one key fantasy category for the past month and a half: Wins
Cain lost his sixth straight decision Wednesday, falling 4-1 to the San Diego Padres after allowing just two earned runs in nearly eight innings of work. Upon looking at his overall performance, you could never imagine that he's a 2-9 pitcher to this point. Cain currently ranks fourteenth in the National League with a 3.38 ERA and falls just outside of the top twenty with a 1.31 WHIP. While his walk rate has been a tad high (4.50/9 IP) and he hasn't quite lived up to the hype from a strikeout standpoint so far this season (6.45 K/9), he has maintained a .225 BAA, ranking him sixth in the National League.
What's the problem, then? Run support! Cain's run support entering play Wednesday was a pathetic 3.83, ranking him 44th out of 51 qualifiers for the ERA title. If you want that to sound even worse, it can be done. In Cain's last victory (May 13 in Colorado), the Giants scored fifteen runs for him. In his other fifteen starts (including Wednesday's game), they've scored 27 runs for him.... combined. In fact, when Pedro Feliz hit a solo home run in the second inning of Wednesday's loss, it was the first time the Giants had scored a run for Cain before he threw his final pitch since June 5, a span of four starts.
In fact, over his current six decision losing streak (spanning eight games), Cain has been virtually identical to the pitcher that started out of the blocks at 2-3. He's allowed just 23 runs (21 earned) in 53 innings to post a 3.57 ERA while maintaining a solid 1.28 WHIP. His strikeout rate has dipped a touch (5.43) during that span, but much of that comes from his one legitimately poor outing during that stretch, his outing against the Yankees last Friday, when he didn't strike out a single batter in five innings.
While his actual performance would ordinarily be a major indication that you should try and buy him low before his win-loss record evens out, you should take it with a grain of salt. Consider this: As of Opening Day, the Giants had the oldest roster in the Major Leagues, and the addition of Tim Lincecum to an already young starting staff didn't change that much. Considering that the average age of the Giants' starting rotation is 26.4, the bats had quite a bit to do with that highest average age. The simple fact of the matter is that we're probably seeing about what the Giants are going to get from guys like Barry Bonds, Omar Vizquel, Ryan Klesko, Ray Durham, and the bunch (the Giants' youngest regular starter in the field would be 32-year-old Pedro Feliz). If you're looking to add a great pitcher who will help your overall numbers, Cain's your guy. If you're looking for someone to win eight to ten games the rest of the way, look elsewhere.
Cain wasn't the only premium young starter to extend his losing streak Wednesday. Cardinal starter Anthony Reyes lost his tenth straight decision to start the year, a streak that ran to twelve straight regular season decisions. Though he looked strong on Wednesday, allowing just two runs on two hits in five innings, he hasn't turned in quite the all-around performance that Cain has. Reyes did snap a string of four straight starts in which he'd allowed at least five runs.
He has, however, faced many of the same run support issues that Cain has. In fact, he's had things even worse. Entering play Wednesday, Reyes had received just 1.95 runs of support per nine innings of work, ranking him 64th (dead last) among NL starters who had accrued at least 60 innings of work.... more than three quarters of a run behind Brett Tomko (who ranked 63rd). Reyes' strikeout ratio of 6.40 K/9 IP ranks right there with Cain. His 1.42 WHIP, while far from ideal, certainly doesn't belie the 6.40 ERA that he had after the game either. While his eight home runs allowed in 64.2 innings aren't what we're looking for either, it's far from Miltonesque.
In many ways, the question as to whether or not Reyes can turn things around lies in the hands of his manager and pitching coach. Since ascending to the major leagues on (what seemed to be) a permanent basis last season, Tony Larussa and Dave Duncan have continually tried to alter the way Reyes pitches, preaching pitching to contact and getting groundballs above all else. This is, of course, a blueprint that the Cardinals have used with astounding success in recent seasons. Relying on groundball pitchers and their infield defense, the Cardinals have won three straight division titles, a World Series last season, and have appeared in the playoffs in six of the past seven years. However, of their starters throughout that recent run, only one could ever have been classified as a power pitcher at any point in his career: Chris Carpenter.
Carpenter, a veteran who had enjoyed moderate success (and suffered plenty of failure) in Toronto earlier in his career, came to the Cardinals with a significantly stronger knowledge of what his own strengths and weaknesses were as a major leaguer, and was at least able to work into the Cardinal system based on that. He was able to incorporate his usual power-pitching style into the Cardinal philosophy, learning to pitch to contact when it was necessary. Reyes' primary problem seems to be that he hasn't learned how to effectively pitch to contact, as Carpenter did. Is this his fault or the Cardinals fault, though?
St. Louis drafted Reyes out of USC with the knowledge that they were drafting a power pitcher. They groomed him throughout their system as... a power pitching prospect. A significant portion of the problem with Reyes, right now, seems to be that they're trying to push a complete 180 degree turn down his throat and stressing contact, contact, contact. You can see it in the results.
Where can you see them? Reyes has been extremely susceptible to the big inning. In his past four starts, Reyes has allowed seventeen runs..... in four innings. Even though he allowed just two runs, you could still see it happening tonight. David Wright's two run home run was on a good pitch, but that may have been a bit of a different situation, since Reyes was pitching with a man on first and two outs. In other words, rather than trying to induce a double play ball, he was able to try and be himself. The pitch was down and on the inside corner, a pitch that looked capable of jamming Wright a little bit, though it didn't get inside quite far enough. Wright took it the other way for a two run shot that would provide all of the scoring.
This was not when Reyes' problems with pitching to contact would surface for all to see, though. That would happen in the fifth inning, when he would eventually work his way out of a jam on his own terms. To begin the inning, Reyes lost control of a 2-2 pitch to Damion Easley, hitting him and allowing the leadoff man to reach. The next at bat is where you saw it. With pitcher Tom Glavine on deck (a guaranteed sacrifice if Carlos Gomez were to reach), Reyes started nibbling, ensuring he would keep the ball low and try and get the perfect double play ball hit (which, as a side note, is the only way they were going to double off the speedy Gomez anyway). Rather than attacking, as a power pitcher would be doing when he's facing the eighth place hitter, Reyes lost Gomez on five pitches. Three of them weren't even close.
After the token sacrifice from Glavine, Reyes redeemed himself. Whether he just decided to ignore his recent coaching or not, he did attack Jose Reyes at the plate, striking him out on four pitches. All three strikes were swinging on hard biting changeups, though he did try and change Reyes' eye level a bit by going up the ladder with a fastball at one point. The whole point is that Reyes finally made the pitches when he had to, and he did so by being himself, by being the pitcher that the Cardinals drafted and developed. While the Cardinals would be foolish to let Reyes walk, the best thing for both him and the team might be a change of scenery.
Oddly enough, I'm buying Reyes the rest of the way, and he's not someone I'll have to pay anything for after his start. The Cardinal offense, while pitiful in its own right (27th in MLB with 316 RS) simply can't continue to play this poorly behind Reyes. He's going to start getting more support from his teammates, and he appears to be learning that he can pitch like Anthony Reyes (a power pitcher) instead of trying to be Jeff Suppan (a groundball pitcher) when runners are on. If he can find a happy medium, he should have one of the biggest turnarounds of the second half.... whether that happens in Cardinal uniform or not remains to be seen.
Fantasy Baseball 
The indicators are definitely there on Cain, but a lot of people (much of the St. Louis media included) don't seem to realize that Reyes' indicators have been significantly better than his results. In short, even if he keeps doing what he's been doing, that ERA is going to come down quite a bit and (hopefully) the offense is going to eventually score some runs for him.
Plus, it's never a bad idea to talk about a couple of guys who could help out in the second half.
The indicators are definitely there on Cain, but a lot of people (much of the St. Louis media included) don't seem to realize that Reyes' indicators have been significantly better than his results. In short, even if he keeps doing what he's been doing, that ERA is going to come down quite a bit and (hopefully) the offense is going to eventually score some runs for him.
Plus, it's never a bad idea to talk about a couple of guys who could help out in the second half.
Great article Jim.
Reyes is an interesting case. His peripherals suggest he's a better pitcher than the results indicate, but he also seems to suffer from the "Dave Bush Syndrome." He has this major problem of giving up big innings while otherwise pitching good. And pitchers that do that usually do so via giving up the long ball.
Which leads to an interesting discussion surrounding fly ball rates in the minors. Nate Silver of BP wrote in yesterday's chat that he suspects there might be a correlation between pitchers with good K:9 and K:BB rates in the minors that have large fly ball and HR percentages and their lack of big league success. Those type pitchers typically get ranked highly by the various prospect listings because they flash good "stuff", yet when they get to the majors, they get pounded. Why? Major league batters don't miss nearly as often as their minor league counterparts. So, in essence the theory is if a pitcher gives up a lot of fly ball outs, a significant portion of those outs will turn into HRs in the majors.
It's an interesting theory, and one that I personally will be closely watching. And if it is in fact true, that does not bode well for someone like Reyes, who definitely is a fly ball pitcher.
The fact is, Reyes has pitched two good games in his MLB career. Thankfully for the Cardinals, one of them was Game 1 of the World Series last year. But aside from those games, there is almost no evidence Reyes is a promising prospect of any kind.
I'd much rather have Cain, on my baseball team or my fantasy team. It would be great if the Giants were to deal him for Reyes straight up, but it ain't happenin'.
Cheers
The fact is, Reyes has pitched two good games in his MLB career. Thankfully for the Cardinals, one of them was Game 1 of the World Series last year. But aside from those games, there is almost no evidence Reyes is a promising prospect of any kind.
I'd much rather have Cain, on my baseball team or my fantasy team. It would be great if the Giants were to deal him for Reyes straight up, but it ain't happenin'.
Cheers
Sure... I don't think you could name a person in America who wouldn't much rather have Cain. Apart from the fact that he's actually enjoyed success at the big league level for the past few seasons, he's also three years younger. However, to say that Reyes' status as a prospect has been completely tarnished by what equates to a disappointing full season (he's made a combined 36 appearances and 34 starts in his big league career) is being a bit too harsh. As for the run support, let's completely discount wins and losses from the following:
Anthony Reyes Career Minor League Statistics:
3.22 ERA, 1.05 WHIP, 40 HR All., 480:96 K:BB, 9.59 K/9 IP in 450.3 IP
His AAA Statistics from 2005-2007:
3.03 ERA, 0.99 WHIP, 23 HR All., 234:48 K:BB, 8.97 K/9 IP in 234.7 IP
Now his big league statistics, which reflect a few positives and a lot of negatives:
5.40 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 27 HR All., 130:62 K:BB, 7.16 K/9 IP in 163.3 IP
His K/9 is down a little bit, which is to be expected as he adjusts to the higher level. He's still fanning more than 7 batters per 9 innings, which is just fine.
He's struggled a little with his control at times. I think we've seen that from most young pitchers (Cain included). Since I'm still making the case that Reyes has front-line potential, I'll point to a few current aces. In Roy Halladay's first full season, he walked 79 in 149 innings (Halladay is now known as one of the league's best control pitchers). Brandon Webb walked 119 in 208 innings in his second season. Both have won Cy Young awards (not saying Reyes has that type of ceiling). Jake Peavy walked 82 in 194.1 innings in his first full season.
Reyes allows home runs. That's part of the problem with being a fly ball pitcher. On the positive side, the 56 home runs yielded in Busch Stadium ranks it among the league's best pitcher's parks in terms of suppressing power.
Pitchers who would qualify for the ERA title (from an IP standpoint) who currently range from a 1.35 (Reyes' career big league WHIP) and 1.42 (Reyes' current season WHIP):
Matt Morris
Tom Glavine
Jarrod Washburn
Curt Schilling
Matt Belisle
Barry Zito
Julian Tavarez
Daniel Cabrera
Jason Hirsh
Roy Oswalt
Chad Durbin
Randy Wolf
Aaron Cook
Kyle Lohse
Braden Looper
Noah Lowry
Chad Gaudin
Now, while Oswalt's the only true ace of that group... here's what I'm getting at. Four of those pitchers have an ERA over 5.00 (Daniel Cabrera & Kyle Lohse [5.02], Matt Belisle [5.03], and Jason Hirsh [5.21]). Reyes' current ERA is a whopping 6.40 on the year. The numbers aren't adding up.
As for two good games, I would have to assume that you're referring to the World Series as the obvious one. You could have meant several other games as the other:
- 6 innings of 1 run ball in a pressure packed game against the Padres in the final week of last season (I assume this is the one you're referring to)
- 6.1 innings of shutout ball with 9 strikeouts against the Pirates last season
- 5 innings of two hit shutout ball against the Reds last season
- The other obvious one. Eight innings of one run ball against the White Sox in a 1-0 loss. The Cardinals lost the surrounding four games by an aggregate score of 50-23, including 20-6 and 13-5 to the White Sox the previous two nights
- 5.2 innings of 4 hit shutout ball against the Royals in his first start last season
Excluding his first (shortened) season, Reyes has had only two or three great starts, another handful of very good ones, quite a few decent/average starts (3-4 runs in 6 innings), and about four or five really bad ones. Yep... sounds like a young pitcher to me.
Reyes still has plenty of work to do to live up to his (MLB) draft status as well as the fact that he was considered the Cardinals' top prospect heading into 2005 and 2006. However, the minor league numbers were certainly there, and he's certainly not the first heralded young pitcher to struggle in his first couple of opportunities at the big league level. In closing, consider an ace that the Cardinals traded away... Dan Haren:
2003 - 5.08 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 9 HR All., 43:22 K:BB, 5.32 K/9 IP in 72.6 IP
You may recall that he was shuttled back and forth between the majors and the minors quite a bit in his second season(2004), in part because he allowed ten to the Cubbies in his first start of the year. He turned out OK, and has arguably been Oakland's best starter two years running. With the sole exception of HR allowed, Reyes put up better numbers across the board in his rookie season (last year) than Haren did in 2003. His ERA was .02 better. His WHIP was .07 better. His strikeout rate and walk rates were significantly better.
There's still plenty of hope for Reyes. It should be interesting to see if the Cardinals give up on him too soon.