Padres Preview: Failure to Trade Peavy Looms Large

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Just a year removed from consecutive NL West titles and coming off of four consecutive winning seasons, the Padres were one of the favorites in the wide open NL West heading into last season. However, it quickly became apparent that their achilles heel (the offense) was even more of an issue than it had been in the past. The Padres offense scored a league worst 637 runs in 2008. No matter how good the pitching staff may be, that's tough to mask.

Blog of Interest: Friar Forecast

Projected Lineup

Bench: Scott Hairston, Matt Antonelli, Edgar Gonzalez, Luis Rodriguez, Will Venable
Food for Thought

There aren't many changes I would make based on their personnel, though the obvious thing I'd like to do is to change that personnel almost entirely. Gerut is expected to bat leadoff, but would probably be miscast there. They really don't have much else in the way of options, but we'll go with the guy that you know you're going to get that high OBP from with Giles in place of Gerut. Giles' power has been sapped enough by the combination of age and Petco Park so that there's no real advantage to batting him in a power production spot of the lineup. While he brings little in terms of stolen bases, Giles is still a heady baserunner who managed a .398 OBP last season and maintains a .404 lifetime OBP. He'll get on base, and that's what the Pads will need most atop the order.

Eckstein fits that mold of the prototypical number two hitter that I've brought up with the Nationals and Mariners. He almost always has one of the ten best contact rates in the league. While the ideal situation has him reaching base a lot of the time, it's important to get productive outs from your number two hitter. Eckstein never gives anything away, and even when he makes an out, he prides himself on making it productive.

Gerut, who hit more home runs in ~330 at bats than Giles did in ~540 at bats, would hopefully see a few more run-producing opportunities batting fifth than he would batting leadoff. In fact, he figures to have the third best established power bat in the lineup, and should fit here nicely. Headley has quite a bit of potential, but should be worked into a run-producing spot in the order a little more slowly.

The only other changes I've made are defensive, with Eckstein serving as the full-time shortstop and Antonelli winning the second base job. This is purely an upside maneuver to keep Antonelli's bat in the lineup. As good as his brother is, Edgar Gonzalez doesn't figure to have a future as a regular when this team is ready to contend. Neither does Luis Rodriguez. While Eckstein's lack of an arm makes him a much better option at second than shortstop, he should be used primarily at the shortstop position, occasionally playing second when the Padres work Luis Rodriguez into the lineup on occasion.

Fantasy Factors

The only real serious fantasy factor on the Padres' offense will be Adrian Gonzalez. In his three years since heading to San Diego in the trade that also netted them Chris Young, Gonzalez has averaged 39 doubles, 30 homers, 96 runs, and 100 RBI. He's also hit .287 over those three seasons, and has added six homers to his totals two years running. He gives outstanding four category production at first base.

Brian Giles doesn't provide nearly the production that he once did as a power hitter, but he's still a tremendously well-rounded outfielder who is an asset as a third or fourth outfielder in most leagues. Ironically, as the team crumbled around him last season, Giles may have had his best showing since Petco Park opened. He boosted the average back up over .300 for the first time since 2005 while watching his OBP jump 37 points from the previous season. Giles' 40 doubles were a career best as well. He'll score 75+ runs and likely drive in 70 (barring the Pads using him in that leadoff spot as I suggest they should). Don't expect more than 15 homers, but expect above average numbers in three categories.

Kevin Kouzmanoff jacked up the home run total a bit last season, but that was more from a higher volume of at bats than anything else. His slugging percentage actually dropped off from .457 to .433. Kouzmanoff has enough pop to manage one or two 30 homer seasons over the course of his career, but I'm not sure Petco is the place for him. Regardless, he should show a little bit of an improvement in his third full season in the big leagues this year, and is worth a look as a reserve infielder late.

There were a lot of ups and downs from Chase Headley in 2008, though you would have to say that most of his stay was disappointing. He brings good pop to the table, though he was really more of an all-field doubles hitter throughout most of his minor league career. That led to 9 homers and 19 doubles in 331 at bats. The drawback, however, was that he struck out 104 times, leaving him with a terrible contact rate. Headley looked a little overmatched last season in the majors, but he does have a future.

Verbal Kint once said that the greatest trick the devil ever pulled was convincing the world he didn't exist. Jody Gerut did just that for a few years. He enjoyed a monster rookie year back in 2003 with the Indians, bashing 22 homers with a .279 average as a 25-year-old. However, a mediocre follow-up campaign led to him being traded twice in 2005, and he ended up with a three year hiatus from the majors until last season. Upon returning to the majors with the Padres last season, Gerut looked much more like the 25-year-old kid who slapped the ball around the yard and had some fun when he was playing. He came back strong, batting .296/.351/.494 with 14 homers in just 329 at bats for San Diego. That means he'll definitely have a starting gig locked up heading into camp, and he's worth a late look on draft day. Just don't be surprised if he disappears again.

To be honest, the Padres' power-hitting fourth outfield option Scott Hairston makes for a more intriguing fantasy player than any of their middle infield candidates. Given 300 at bats, Hairston has the power to bring fifteen homers to a fantasy squad.

David Eckstein is the prototypical slap-hitter who will neither hit many homers nor drive many runs in. Given a prime spot in the order, he could score enough runs to carry one category, and he's capable of hitting .300. While he has decent speed, the stolen base is not a big part of his repertoire.... Luis Rodriguez is a pretty solid glove man up the middle, but that's all there really is to say about him.... Matt Antonelli hit 21 homers between high A and AA ball in 2007, and has a bat that's capable of making an impact for the Padres if he gets regular playing time.... Nick Hundley has a nice power bat for a catcher, but looks to be a year or two away from garnering any serious fantasy consideration.

Rotation

Jake Peavy
Chris Young
Cha Seung Baek
Kevin Correia
Josh Geer

Despite the expected lack of run support, Peavy should be one of the first five starters taken in your fantasy draft. The 2007 NL Cy Young winner missed five starts with an elbow injury, but still finished 10-11 with a 2.85 ERA, a 1.18 WHIP, and 166 strikeouts in 173+ innings. The positives here are that his support can't be any worse than it was last season, and he's completely healthy heading to camp. Expect that sub-3.00 ERA, a WHIP in the 1.10 range, and 200 strikeouts.... wins might be a little tougher to project.

Many may remember the bizarre Albert Pujols inning suffered by Chris Young and (departed) catcher Josh Bard last May. Young's fate was suffered during Pujols' at bat, where a screamer right back up the box broke his nose and made many of us grateful that he wasn't killed. The injury kept Young out for two and a half months, but he showed no ill effects (read: stagefright) upon his return. Young actually finished the season with four straight quality starts, including a complete game in a 10-1 win over Milwaukee and seven shutout innings in his penultimate start in Washington against the hapless Nats. Young's final ratio numbers (3.96 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 93 K in 102+ IP) look just fine from last season. Expect a full healthy season, which means he's going to be a major factor in fantasy circles.

Rotation-wise, that's where the fantasy contributions end. It's safe to assume that Cha Seung Baek wins one of the remaining three spots, and we're going to go out on a limb (wow... there's an old column!) and say that Kevin Correia, who was signed to a minor league deal in December, locks up one of the other spots. Neither are really worth a look, and each are coming off of rough years. Josh Geer and Wade LeBlanc figure to be the most likely in-house options with a real shot at the fifth spot, with Geer having a significant head start based on a pretty strong trial late last year (2-1, 2.67 ERA, 1.41 WHIP in five starts). Chad Reineke also figures to have a shot at the fifth spot.

Bullpen

Closer: Heath Bell
Setup: Cla Meredith/Mike Adams (May)
Justin Hampson
Chad Reineke
Scott Patterson

For the first time since 2003 (injury) and the first prolonged period since 1994, Padres fans won't be able to welcome the familiar chime of Hell's Bells in the ninth inning. There will still be a bell, though. With all-time saves leader Trevor Hoffman now in Milwaukee, Heath Bell will assume the duties as the closer in San Diego. Based on his phenomenal performance as a setup man in 2007 and his strong performance in the same role last season, there's little to suggest that Bell won't be a quality closer. As he's never handled the closing duties in the majors, Bell is little more than a lower second tier guy, but he should still be in line for 30 saves as a quality closer because most of the games that San Diego wins will be close.

Meredith has regressed significantly in each of the past two years since dominating as a rookie in 2006. It's safe to say that the league has figured out his funky sidearm delivery, but he's still a fairly effective reliever. Despite spending time in the minors last season, Meredith posted a decent enough 4.09 ERA with the big club, and he should prove to be the most effective established arm they have to put in the setup role.

Mike Adams may be the better option when he's back, but he's set a target of mid-May for his return from offseason shoulder surgery. Though he was out of the majors for a few seasons, Adams has extensive experience as a setup man from his time in Milwaukee. He was also terrific out of the bullpen for the Friars last season, keeping a 2.48 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP while striking out 74 batters in 65+ innings of work.

Justin Hampson is a decent enough lefty out of the 'pen who could be a useful option in holds leagues... The return in the Randy Wolf trade, Chad Reineke will likely audition for a rotation spot this Spring. Geer's strong performance down the stretch last season and the fact that Reineke had to be shut down late with a shoulder injury make him a considerable underdog for that spot. Should he lose the battle, he's likely ticketed for the bullpen rather than AAA.

On the Whole

For you deep and NL-Only Leaguers, there may be more than a handful of Padres worth looking at. If you're in a standard league, you're likely thinking Peavy, Young, Gonzalez, Bell, or bust. While you do have to like the fact that the Padres are going to have a better than average chance to win forty percent of the time (i.e., when Peavy or Young are starting), there's little else to like here. In order for San Diego to challenge the .500 mark, they're likely going to need both Peavy and Young to win 20 games and they'll need better than expected contributions elsewhere. While the NL West remains a division without a true powerhouse, the overall depth in the division is on the upswing.... in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Colorado, and Arizona.

Over/Under: 68

I'll be running the over/under throughout the team previews. We'd love to hear your feedback. Can the San Diego Padres pull a +5 win differential and win 68 games or more this season? Why, or why not?