Royals Preview: Finally out of the Basement... Where to Next?

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For the first time in a handful of years, fans in Kansas City can head into the season with a little bit of optimism. After winning just 245 (an average of 61.25) games in the previous four seasons on their way to four consecutive last place finishes, the Royals showed a little bit of life in 2008. Though their run differential (-90... projected 71 wins) certainly didn't add up to their results (75-87), shutdown closer Joakim Soria helped them win a few more close games than were expected.

Oddly enough, the Royals' pitching staff finished with an equal (4.48) ERA to what they finished with in 2007. While Kansas City probably can't hope for much more than they got from ace Zack Greinke or second starter Gil Meche, there is some hope on the horizon for the rotation. Brian Bannister simply can't be as bad as he was in the second half last season, and former first-rounder Luke Hochevar should improve in his second season.

The offense took a step back in 2008, scoring 691 runs (16 less than they did in 2007). With that in mind, GM Dayton Moore was active in the trading market, picking up CF Coco Crisp to set the table atop the order and adding veteran 1b Mike Jacobs to help drive in some runs in the middle of the pack. While one of these moves should pay off for Kansas City, the other one has to be questioned (we'll get into that later, though). The hope is that SS Mike Aviles can build upon his strong rookie showing, while slow developing uber-prospects Alex Gordon and Billy Butler start producing a little more.

Preferred Reading: Royals Authority & Royals Review

Food for Thought

I think you know which guy I thought was a poor pickup for the Royals already, but we'll still come back to that later. Crisp's stint in Boston wreaked a little havoc on his career path, but he's still a fine option near the top of the order. The fact that the Royals don't really have anyone else who fits here makes him their top candidate. He has good speed, a little bit of power, and generally hits well for average. While he's not spectacular in the discipline department, he's more than likely to draw a walk every ten plate appearances or so. He's solid, though his best spot in the order would probably be in the second spot.

Speaking of guys who the Royals continue to miscast, David DeJesus is (and always has been) a terrific fit for the number two spot. He's spent most of his career leading off for Kansas City, and the buzz is that manager Trey Hillman wants to move him to the third spot. A terrific average-hitter with gap power, DeJesus wouldn't be awful there, but he simply doesn't provide nearly the power that you'd like to see. His 12 home runs last season were a career high, and while he has the potential to boost that towards the 15 range, that's still not what the Royals should be looking for. He has a great contact rate, hits well for average, and even draws his fair share of walks. He'll create a lot of chances for the middle of the order if he bats second, but the Royals are leaning towards last season's surprise, Mike Aviles, to fill that role.

Simply put, it's time for Alex Gordon to put up or shut up. He showed minor improvement in his ratios last season, bumping his batting average 13 points, his OBP 37 points, and his slugging 21 points. His counting categories didn't show us much in the way of improvement, though, as he finished with 16 homers (one more than in 2007) and 59 RBI (one less). Fantasy owners and Royals' fans alike are waiting for that bust-out season, and he could very well provide it in 2009. Despite missing some time in the second half last season, he looked like he was ready to make it happen, batting .277/.392/.496 with 5 homers in just 137 at bats. The Royals' long-term hopes are to have Gordon batting third and Butler batting cleanup. It's time to take that chance. He's their best hitter..... right now.

Jose Guillen really shouldn't be batting cleanup for anyone, but a lack of any better options leaves him hitting in that spot in Kansas City. Coming off of consecutive 20 homer seasons, Guillen is probably the best established power bat in the lineup. I'd love to put Billy Butler here, though.

After a poor first half showing got him demoted to AAA, Billy Butler came back up in the second half and showed that he could live up to the hype. Butler hit .305/.341/.476 with 9 of his 11 homers after the break, and looks ready to mash at the big league level for the next dozen years or so. He'll eventually supplant Guillen as the team's cleanup hitter, and this could happen sooner than later.

27-year-old minor league veteran Mike Aviles showed he can handle the shortstop position at the big league level last season, and has always proven to be a solid average-hitter with decent pop in the minors. While Kansas City will likely employ him in the second spot of the order, my suggestion of moving the considerably more established (and, simply put, better hitter) DeJesus has me bumping him down to the sixth spot. Aviles should be solid again, but drafting him hoping for a full season's worth of last year's production may be a bit optimistic.

Mike Jacobs.... ack. He would appear to have been an unnecessary offseason target by Moore. He is coming off of a career best 32 homers in 2008, and he's hit 69 over the past three years in Florida while slugging a solid .485 over that span. The problem is that he's largely a two true outcomes hitter, who tends to crush the ball at times and strike out a ton as well. As for that third true outcome? Jacobs doesn't do a lot of that, walking just 112 times in 1,484 plate appearances (or once every 13.25 AB) the past three years. Jacobs has to be one of the only players I've ever seen hit 30 homers and finish with an OBP south of .300 in the same season (last year... 32, .299). He's got the power of a middle of the order bat, but there's more to hitting there than just raw power. In fact, I'd venture to say that his failings could well land him in a platoon role with either Ross Gload or Mark Teahen (who has never played first regularly, but hey... it's first base).

Miguel Olivo and John Buck will steal a lot of at bats from each other, though neither is really a fit higher in the order. Callaspo doesn't figure to have much in the way of competition for the starting second base job, and will primarily be used as an extra leadoff type of ninth hitter.

Fantasy Factors

We'll start with third baseman Alex Gordon. Gordon's significant post-break improvement, age, and experience (third season) all point towards a potential breakout. Counting on him to become the kid who hit .325 with 29 homers in his first full professional season at AA would be a little unrealistic. However, we should fully expect him to continue to turn around that batting average and crank the power production up towards 20 to 25 homers. His strong discipline gives him a boost in OBP leagues, but much of his production may be determined by his spot in the order. Batting behind players like DeJesus (.360 career OBP) or Aviles (.354 last season... .338 career minor league) would leave him with plenty of opportunities. Batting behind Guillen (.300 last year... ugly!... .323 career) or Jacobs (.299 last season... .318 career) would severely limit his ability to drive in runs. Gordon will sprinkle in about a dozen steals or so as well.

Next, we'll jump to the other young gun, Billy Butler. Butler is a re-hype option who looked like he had it figured out after the break last season, batting .310/.341/.476. He has the potential to be a monster power-hitter with average-hitting ability. Butler had an amazing minor league career (.336/.416/.561 with 77 HR in 1,532 AB), and figures as a middle of the order hitter for the Royals for years to come. Unfortunately, he's defensively challenged. He will have first base eligibility in just about any league this season, though before possibly being limited to a UT/DH role down the road.

Next up, we'll go with a little bit of a surprise and take Coco Crisp, who figures to be a little more relaxed in Kansas City than he has been in Boston the past few years. Assured a spot atop the order, Crisp will have some solid bats behind him to help drive him in. 35 steals aren't out of the question, and he could well up his power production a bit as well. Expect double digit homers, 35 steals, and close to 100 runs with a solid batting average.

Mike Aviles pretty much came out of nowhere last season, but the fact that Tony Pena is... well.... Tony Pena opened up some doors. There's not a lot of room for Aviles, 28, to continue to grow, but production in range with last year's for a few years wouldn't be completely out of the question. More likely, Aviles hits around .300 with between 10 and 15 homers and solid production in the run-scoring department. Toss in the potential for double digits in steals, and he's a borderline starter at SS in mixed leagues.

Boy... I really must not like Mike Jacobs, huh? I'm not a fan, but he is coming off of a 32 homer season, which makes him valuable in leagues of any size or format. While there are plenty of reasons to think that the Royals shouldn't run him out there in a prime spot in the order everyday, there are a lot more reasons that say they will. He'll hurt you in terms of batting average, and should take a severe knock in leagues that use OBP instead. The spot in the order and the fact that he'll likely jack about 25 homers or so make him a mediocre corner infielder in mixed leagues.

We'll move along to one of the more underappreciated players in the league in David DeJesus. Note that we're not saying that he should be someone you target real high in your fantasy drafts, but simply that he's a terrific player who doesn't get his due. He lacks the power or speed production that you'll need in fantasy leagues, though he has plenty of patience, terrific average-hitting ability, and a good glove in the outfield (should be even better in left). DeJesus should be expected to double/double (double digit homers and steals) again in 2009, and the fact that the Royals plan on batting him third in the order to begin the year should boost his RBI production. He's a quality fourth outfielder in standard mixed leagues.

We know what we're getting from Jose Guillen from year to year. He's going to be a mediocre average-hitting outfielder with little in the discipline department and enough power to hit between 20 and 25 homers. Like Jacobs, he'll likely get a premium spot in the order because of his veteran status, which should help him threaten 100 RBI again. A fourth outfielder in standard mixed leagues, much of Guillen's worth will come because of opportunity. Be thankful your clubhouse won't deal with his problems the way real big-league clubhouses have to.

Miguel Olivo figures to have significantly more fantasy value than John Buck, but both should be limited to AL-Only Leagues. Olivo was once praised as a speedy average-hitting catcher, but has instead developed into a power-hitting option with mediocre average-hitting ability. Buck has shown plenty of pop (though it dropped off the table last season), but has never shown he can hit for average at the big-league level, batting just .234 in his career (including .224 and .222 the past two seasons). While Olivo could well emerge as a solid mixed league option given 500 at bats, the Royals figure to platoon them again.

Alberto Callaspo is largely an empty-batting average option. Neither his 34 career minor league homers (0 big league homers in 399 AB) nor his 68 career minor league steals (3 big league steals) in 2,657 at bats are particularly impressive. However, his .317 minor league average (.305 last year in the bigs... .266 lifetime) and terrific walk to strikeout ratio (seriously.... 229:145... that's 229 walks to 145 strikeouts) tell us that he could well turn into Freddy Sanchez. He's certainly not draft-worthy (or even watch list worthy) in mixed leagues, but he'll have a place in AL-Only Leagues if just for his batting average and a decent run total.

Projected Rotation

Zack Greinke
Gil Meche
Kyle Davies
Horacio Ramirez
Brian Bannister/Luke Hochevar

The Royals have said that they plan to use Horacio Ramirez in the starting role, which leads us to believe that Hochevar and Bannister are going to have to fight for that final spot. By the end of the year, expect both of them to be in the rotation, though.

Zack Greinke took a little longer than fantasy owners would have liked to develop, but his performance over the past two seasons has been nothing short of spectacular. Formerly known as a Greg Maddux clone, the 25-year-old right-hander has shown that he may well become Maddux lite... plus a fastball that touches the high-nineties. Greinke built on his 2007 rebound (7-7, 3.69 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 106 K in 122 IP) to have an even better season in 2008 (13-10, 3.47, 1.28, 183 K in 202 IP). He's on the cusp of hitting ace status in fantasy leagues, and should be among the top 25-30 starters drafted.

Gil Meche had his second consecutive strong showing last season, keeping his ERA below 4.00 (barely... 3.98) for the second year running while maintaining a solid enough 1.32 WHIP and striking out 183 hitters. Perhaps more importantly for his psyche, Meche saw his win total jump from 9 to 14 despite having slightly worse production with his ratios. He's a solid third starter in standard mixed leagues, though I think we're seeing his peak.

Kyle Davies is far from spectacular, but it would certainly appear that his job is safe entering the 2009 season. He showed significant improvement across the board last season, establishing career bests in wins (9), ERA (4.07), WHIP (1.45), and strikeouts (71). He's not really worth much of a look in standard mixed leagues, but could slot in as a back end fantasy starter in deep mixed leagues and AL-Only Leagues.

Perhaps the oddest decision of the Spring so far is that the Royals seem committed to moving Horacio Ramirez to the rotation. Ramirez was terrific out of the bullpen for the Royals last season after they acquired him, allowing just a 2.59 ERA and 0.90 WHIP with an 11:1 strikeout to walk ratio in 24 innings. The oft-injured Ramirez looked to have finally hit stride, possibly finding a role in the bullpen that suited him well. Instead, the Royals will try him as a starter, likely pushing one of their other options to the minors.

Brian Bannister doesn't have the stuff you'd look for in a big-league starter. Last season, he certainly didn't have the results either. However, he may well be the smartest pitcher in the game. This has helped him look like a reliable starter in the past, and could well do so again. The more seasoned of the two candidates for the fifth spot, Bannister is the favorite. While he's a guy that you just have to root for, you don't need the excuse of having him on your fantasy team to do so. He might be an option in deep AL-Only Leagues.

With considerably better stuff, Luke Hochevar is who fantasy owners should be pulling for (over Ramirez... not Banny!) to win that fifth spot. Hochevar hasn't shown nearly the potential as a pro that he did as an amateur. He still has a big fastball, but it simply hasn't translated at the professional level. There's little reason to think that he'll improve dramatically enough to be worthy of fantasy attention if he wins the job, but he can't be worse than last season.

Bullpen

Closer: Joakim Soria
Setup: Juan Cruz
Other Arms of Note: Kyle Farnsworth, Robinson Tejeda
LOOGY: Ron Mahay/Jimmy Gobble

Joakim Soria established himself as a terrific closer in 2007, but last year solidified his spot amongst the elite. Soria turned in a Mariano Rivera-esque effort in 2008, converting on 42 of 45 chances with a 1.60 ERA, a 0.86 WHIP, and 66 strikeouts in 67+ innings. I've seen Soria rated anywhere between the second and sixth spots amongst closers for 2009, but it's a fairly safe assumption that he's going to be one of the top five closers in baseball. He'll go in the first closer's run around the third or fourth round.

Much like they did with the offense, the Royals decided to pursue a couple of options through trade to bolster the bullpen. One of them should work. Juan Cruz never made it as the starter that the Cubs hoped he would become, but he has established himself as one of the premier middle relievers in baseball over the past two years. Cruz had perhaps his best season in 2008, striking out 71 batters in 51+ innings while maintaining a terrific 2.61 ERA and 1.26 WHIP. He figures to slot in as the primary setup man to Soria, and could well be due for 25-30 holds. He's worth owning in most mixed league formats whether holds are a category or not.

I'm quite a bit more skeptical about the addition of Kyle Farnsworth. Farnsworth was awful for the Tigers before being shipped off to New York in 2008. From there, he returned to being what he usually is: a mediocre all-around pitcher with a huge fastball and big strikeout numbers. He'll be a decent addition to the bullpen as a veteran who can work the seventh, but he's not in Cruz' league.... Robinson Tejeda had a strong showing in Kansas City last season, striking out over a batter an inning while limiting opponents to a .163 average. His typically high walk rate didn't burn him because of the BAA. Based on last year's production, he's worth a look on your watch list. However, there's about an 80% chance that it was just a small sample outlier. He's not worth a look in any format, particularly without any type of leverage role.

Ron Mahay figures to handle the primary left-handed setup role, while Jimmy Gobble could see time as a lefty specialist in earlier innings. Mahay typically keeps solid ratios with little in the strikeout department. Gobble, a converted starter, showed some promise in 2007 before falling apart last season. He won't keep good ratios (particularly in terms of WHIP), but brings a lot more in the strikeout department. With the bullpen getting deeper this offseason, neither figures as much of a fantasy option even in leagues with holds.

On the Whole

There's really a lot to like here, but there are still quite a few holes. The fact that the Royals play in what may be baseball's worst division could make them a legitimate contender. The more likely scenario is that Greinke and Meche stay strong, while one of the other starters ends up producing better than expected and the rest struggle a bit. While the offense figures to improve in 2009, the Royals will need both Billy Butler and Alex Gordon to have breakout seasons to have a real shot at the playoffs... as well as getting solid contributions from both of their offseason acquisitions offensively. The more likely scenario is that Gordon busts out, Butler takes a nice step forward, and either Crisp or Jacobs (think we know who my money's on) flake out. One thing's for sure, though. If the Royals have a lead going into the seventh inning, they're going to be tough to beat. The additions of Farnsworth and Cruz to go along with the lights-out stuff of Joakim Soria should help to make this one of the best shutdown bullpens in baseball. I get the feeling I like the Royals in 2009 more than most, but......

Over/Under: 78 Wins

I'll be running the over/under throughout the team previews. We'd love to hear your feedback. Can the Kansas City Royals manage a +3 win differential and win 78 games or more this season? Why, or why not?

Next up: Oakland A's (75-86)

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