Rangers Preview: Bats Still Rock, But Who's Pitching?

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Predicted to finish last in the AL West by most prognosticators heading into last season, the Texas Rangers used their young offense to bump themselves into the top half of the division. Texas' 79-83 record was perhaps one of the bigger surprises of the 2008 season, though how they got there held little to no shock value.

No team (no team could, actually) had more extreme splits between the offense and the pitching staff last season. Texas led the majors with 901 runs scored. The pitching staff, however, allowed 83 more runs than any other team in either league, and finished with an ERA nearly a quarter point higher than the second worst pitching staff in baseball. It's no surprise at all that the club was after Ben Sheets in the offseason (and still may be the team to sign him when he's healthy).

Preferred Reading: Lone Star Ball

Food for Thought

I've been doing the "What I'd Do" segment throughout the Team Previews, but if it ain't broke, I'm not going to fix it. A bit more apt to draw a walk than Michael Young, Kinsler should stay in the leadoff spot. He's a five tool talent who was arguably the best second baseman in fantasy before getting hurt last season. While he could take a slight step back, Texas should expect a .300+ batting average with 20/20 production.

Michael Young's the perfect number two hitter. Almost always a lock for 200 hits, Young usually keeps a pretty high contact rate with strong average-hitting ability and some pop.

Though he was down a bit in the second half, Hamilton is clearly the best option to bat in the third spot of the order. He'll hit for a high average with 30+ homer power while drawing his fair share of walks. He's their biggest RBI man, which makes him a good fit for the cleanup spot as well, but the third spot helps him maximize his chances a little more.

Coming off of consecutive injury-plagued seasons (and having watched Chris Davis emerge), Hank Blalock will spend most of his time as a DH in 2009. With 22 homers in 466 at bats the past two seasons, it would seem that Blalock has the power to handle the cleanup duties. Long term, he may concede this role to the same guy he conceded his playing time to in the field, but Blalock's experience fits better here.

Chris Davis is one of the names on the tip of everyone's tongue as we get ready for the 2009 season. A rookie last season, the 22-year-old Davis flat raked after he got the call, batting .285/.331/.549 with 17 homers and 55 RBI in just 295 at bats. Everything in his minor league career suggests that these numbers are not out of line with what we should expect of him. He's going to be a middle of the order bat for the Rangers for years to come, but the safe option is that they don't put too much pressure on him immediately, letting him bat in the fifth spot.

Nelson Cruz was a monster down the stretch in his own right. Though he's never proven that he can consistently hit big league pitching, Cruz has often looked like a potential 30/30 man during his stint in the minors. Old for a prospect (27), Cruz spent most of last season in AAA, and to say that he dominated would be a bit of an understatement. He hit .342/.429/.565 with 37 homers and 24 steals in 383 at bats for Oklahoma.

Murphy lacks the upside that Davis or Cruz have, but he proved to be a solid third outfielder in his first full season. He's not a huge bat in the seventh spot of the order, but hey... it's the seventh spot in the order.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden figure to split the catching duties for the most part. While they both have plenty of pop in their bats, it's not going to be easy to crack a higher spot in the order in this lineup.

Omar Vizquel fits as the... well... the pitcher. A decent offensive contributor once upon a time, Vizquel joins the Rangers' lineup as someone who gives them outstanding defense up the middle. Something tells me they won't be hurting for runs.

Fantasy Factors

We'll lead off with Ian Kinsler. The former Mizzou product looked well on his way to claiming a spot atop the second base rankings before undergoing season-ending sports hernia surgery in mid-August. In fact, despite missing the last month and a half, Kinsler still finished fifth among second basemen in Runs (102), sixth in Home Runs (18), ninth in RBI (78), third in steals (26), and second in batting average (.318). At 26, he would appear to be entering his prime years, and while he may slip just a little from last year's dominating performance, he's one of the top three options at one of the thinnest positions in the game.

Up next, we'll go with home run derby runner-up Josh Hamilton. The former top overall pick built on his 2008 success in Cincinnati, bashing 32 homers while batting .304 and leading the American League with 130 RBI. Unfortunately, his post-break splits simply didn't match up with his first half. Hamilton slugged more than fifty points lower, while finishing with just 35 RBI after the All-Star Break. That's not really that surprising for a player who had yet to play regularly for a full big league season prior to 2008, so we should expect that he'll be a bit more consistent in 2009. While he had a strange time getting to them, Hamilton would seem to be in his peak years already. He's a borderline first round pick in mixed leagues.

Batting third (and playing third in most fantasy leagues), we'll go with the extreme upside of Chris Davis. Davis' bat didn't come out of nowhere last season, though we weren't expecting to see it play quite so regularly until 2009. His 17 homers in half a season were amazing, and they're not out of line with what we've seen from him in the minors. Davis is a career .302/.357/.595 hitter in the minors with 74 homers in 1,045 at bats. His bat will play in leagues of any format, but a pick in the first seven or eight rounds (where you might have to jump to take him) may be a bit bold for a youngster who may undergo a bit of an adjustment period in 2009. Expect strong production across the board. Just don't expect him to double up and duplicate last year's half season by turning it into a full season's worth of production at that level. .290/25/90 would be a good starting point.

In the cleanup spot, we'll take the steady infield bat of Michael Young. Young will qualify at shortstop for (at least) one more year before being stuck at a deeper position at third base. Young tends to be a bit overrated in fantasy circles, as his primary strengths are his batting average and the amount of runs he'll score. His production in the Home Run and Stolen Base categories aren't empty by any means, but his ceiling in both categories would appear to be 15. He'll perform adequately in each of them, but won't excel in either of them. A solid all-around bat, Young is a legit top ten shortstop who usually goes in the top five. As long as you're not jumping in the first five or six rounds, he's worth a gamble.

Next up, we'll go with high risk/high reward candidate Nelson Cruz. We can't say with much accuracy what Cruz is going to do this season. Often considered a 4A player, Cruz finally showed some of that dominance at the big league level after an August call, batting .330 with 7 homers, 26 RBI, and 3 steals in just 115 at bats. Between AAA and the majors last season, Cruz finished with 44 bombs, 125 RBI, and 27 stolen bases while batting .339. There are reasons that he hasn't stuck as a big league regular by now, but quite a few of them have to do with his being blocked by considerably more established players in the past. Hoping for .300/30/20 would be a bit too optimistic, but there's a chance that it could actually happen. Cruz is well worth a look in the middle rounds as a third outfielder in mixed leagues.

Behind Cruz, we'll move to the catching platoon of Jarrod Saltalamacchia and Taylor Teagarden. The disappointing thing for fantasy owners is that they'll each see their at bats limited by the others' presence. The positive is that both Teagarden and Saltalamacchia could hit 20 jacks if they were to get more time in the lineup. Max Ramirez is actually a pretty strong backup option to either of them, so if the Rangers were to manage to deal one away for pitching help, the player that stays could have some serious mixed league value. Just don't go into your draft expecting that. They'd both make excellent second catchers in mixed leagues that use them. Other than that, the fact that they'll split time limits both Salty and Teagarden to deeper mixed leagues or AL-Only Leagues.

Hank Blalock would place a lot higher on most teams, but the fact that he's coming off of consecutive injury-plagued seasons knocks him way down to the seventh spot with the Rangers. Still in his prime, the potential is there for Blalock to have another 30 homer season or two left in him. He also hits fairly well for average, and will qualify at both corner infield spots for 2009. Expected to DH almost exclusively this season (barring a trade), Blalock's positional eligibility may become a bit more limited down the road. Still, the DH role should help him stay healthier, and 500 at bats for Blalock should mean a monster season. He hit .287 with 12 bombs in just 258 at bats last year.

The presence of Marlon Byrd could really limit David Murphy this season. After a decent showing in his first full season (.275/.321/.465 with 15 homers), Murphy should have entered camp as the clear favorite to hold onto the left field job. However, the club is leaning towards giving Byrd a lot of at bats. The most likely scenario is that the two platoon, with Murphy getting the bulk of the at bats as the lefty. Either make for fine AL-Only options, while they'll both have their place in deeper mixed leagues that carry a fourth or fifth outfielder. Standard mixed league owners can basically forget about them, though.

Omar Vizquel doesn't figure to have any fantasy value going forward. As for the rest of the (possible) bench, the one guy you have to keep an eye out for is minor league signee Andruw Jones. We all know that he fell apart last season, and Jones won't have an easy time cracking the Rangers lineup (if he even makes the team). However, if he does, all bets are off. I've ripped him for years in this column, but watching him completely crumble last season wasn't pleasant for anyone (well... maybe Giants fans). You have to think that the power's still there, and if he somehow moved into a loaded lineup and one of the best hitter's parks in all of baseball, it could be a marriage made in heaven.

Projected Rotation

Kevin Millwood
Vicente Padilla
Scott Feldman
(Blank)
(Blank)

I'm leaving the last two blank because there's a plethora of candidates for the rotation. There's the possibility (likelihood, actually) that the Rangers go with two of Brandon McCarthy, Kason Gabbard, and Matt Harrison. There's another camp (here comes that "What I'd do" segment) that believes that it's simply time to scrap the re-hype experiments and go with a couple of the young power arms that dominated AA last season in the system. We'll get to all of them.

While he was outpitched a touch by one of his teammates last year, Kevin Millwood is the unquestioned ace of the staff. That's not saying much. Millwood has finished with an ERA north of 5.00 in each of the past two seasons, as well as a WHIP around 1.60. He has no place on any mixed league that isn't running 400+ players deep, but should be a solid back-end option in AL-Only Leagues simply because the win total could come up a bit in 2009.

That pitcher who outperformed Millwood (but was still pretty awful in his own right) is Vicente Padilla. Padilla finished 2008 with fourteen wins, a 4.74 ERA, and a 1.46 WHIP, so we're still not talking about a guy who should get a lot of mixed league attention. However, he'll have a place as a back end option in deep leagues with the potential to win 12-15 games again and an ERA in the high 4 range.

Scott Feldman isn't anyone to write home about, but he looks like the safest bet outside of Padilla and Millwood to secure a spot. He showed improvement in his first go-around as a big league starter last year, and there simply doesn't look like there's anything for him to prove in the minors. His biggest strength in his effort to lock down a job is simply that the Rangers don't have anyone who they know will be better. Feldman probably isn't worth your time unless you're in a deep AL-Only League, though.

Neither Brandon McCarthy, Matt Harrison, nor Kason Gabbard should have a place in anything other than a pretty deep AL-Only League themselves, and that's assuming that they even manage to lock up rotation spots. Once upon a time, McCarthy was a pretty solid prospect for the White Sox, but he's done little to inspire us in 275+ big league innings. To be honest, his numbers look solid in comparison with the rest of the staff (4.54 ERA, 1.37 WHIP lifetime in the majors... not too far off on those numbers since joining the Rangers). He's probably the best of the re-hype options that the Rangers have for 2009.

Matt Harrison figures to be an OK long-term return from the Mark Teixeira deal a couple of years ago. He does boast a 3.44 ERA and 1.23 WHIP in 630+ minor league innings. The concern is that his strikeout rate might be a little lower than we'd like to see. He showed some potential last season in his first shot in the show, but there were a lot of ups and downs. There's a better than average chance that he'll be the fifth starter when camp breaks, but until we see him start translating a bit better to the major league level, he's not someone to watch outside of AL-Only Leagues.

Kason Gabbard got his third shot at a big league job last season, and regressed for the second consecutive season. After an outstanding effort in his first shot with Texas in 2006 (4-0, 3.73 ERA, 1.12 WHIP), he simply appears to have completely lost his control. Last season, Gabbard had an awful 33:39 K:BB ratio in 12 starts for the Rangers. Coming off of an elbow injury, Gabbard figures to be behind everyone else in camp... which may be a good thing for Texas.

The candidates I'll bring up are probably a year away, but both dominated AA last season. Neftali Feliz has been considered Texas' top pitching prospect for a couple of years now, and there's little wonder as to why considering his minor league track record. Feliz boasts a 2.85 ERA and 1.15 WHIP to go along with an outstanding 250:89 strikeout to walk ratio in 189 minor league innings. He was terrific in AA after getting the call last season, going 4-3 with a 2.98 ERA, a 1.26 WHIP, and 47 strikeouts in 45+ innings. Still just 20, the Rangers would probably be best served in the long-run by letting him repeat the AA level before coming up to AAA (or bypassing it if he's absolutely dominant) at midseason, but there aren't a lot of better options at the big league level.

Derek Holland doesn't have much more minor league experience than Feliz, despite being a year older. In 217+ minor league innings, Holland has a filthy 240:61 strikeout to walk ratio to go along with a 2.56 career minor league ERA and 1.05 WHIP. He pitched well in high A ball last season before absolutely dominating at AA in four starts after a call-up. Seriously... Holland allowed just 20 baserunners and 2 earned runs in 26 innings in Frisco to go along with a 29:6 strikeout to walk ratio. Holland is more likely to be fast-tracked a bit than Feliz, but both should figure prominently into the Rangers 2010 plans... if not this season.

Bullpen

Closer: Frank Francisco
Setup: C.J. Wilson
Other Arms of Note: Joaquin Benoit, Eddie Guardado, Brendan Donnelly

There's no real LOOGY here, though Guardado could fit the bill.

Frank Francisco enters the season as the favorite to close in Texas this season. While he doesn't have a lot of history in the ninth inning, Francisco does have both the tools and the big league experience to handle the role with aplomb. I was vocal last season about not buying the Rangers' (former) closer, but feel Francisco is a safe bet for 30 saves and an ERA just north of 3.00. He has the potential to dominate in the strikeout category as well.

That closer I wasn't sold on last year was C.J. Wilson, who proved adequate for a while but eventually lost the job. While he simply doesn't have the makeup to close games regularly at the big league level (read: 6.02 ERA, 1.64 WHIP despite his 24 saves last year), he has proven to be a solid middle reliever in the past. There's nothing to say that he can't be one again. The setup role figures to feature Wilson and a couple of others.

Joaquin Benoit has the strikeout production you should be looking for in a closer, but lacks the necessary control. He'll be out for at least the first half of 2009, so there's no need to invest in him. He could well be the second best arm in the Rangers' bullpen when he returns though.... Everyday Eddie Guardado is perhaps the most intriguing non-closer for the Rangers, as you would have to think that his experience in the role would give him a good shot at supplanting Francisco if he struggles. While the crafty lefty certainly isn't what he used to be, he'll immediately be installed as the left-handed setup man in the Rangers' bullpen, and could surprise in holds leagues.

On the Whole

While the offense could be even stronger than last season, the fact that the Rangers weren't able to address those pitching needs through free agency (there's still an excellent chance they sign Sheets for the second half, who is reportedly rehabbing with their team doctor) places them a tad below the Athletics in the race to challenge the Angels atop the AL West. The bullpen should be a little better, and it's hard to imagine the rotation not being a little better. However, you would have to think that the potential of getting one (or two) of their pitching prospects to actually develop into big leaguers in their system (John Danks and Edinson Volquez sure looked good in different uniforms last year) is something that the Rangers desperately need going forward. The groundwork is there with Feliz and Holland, who could each be pitching for this club by midseason. The offense will challenge the 900 run mark again, while the pitching staff could lower their ERA from 5.37 to around 5.00. If they can manage to cut that ERA below 5.00, there's a chance Texas is playing in October.

Over/Under: 82 Wins

I'll be running the over/under throughout the team previews. We'd love to hear your feedback. Can the Texas Rangers manage a +3 win differential and win 84 games or more this season? Why, or why not?

Next up: Cleveland Indians (81-81)

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