Indians Preview: They've Been Good in the Odd Years....

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Whatever the reason, the Cleveland Indians have been particularly unlucky in even years recently. Following a 93 win season that left them just short of the wildcard in 2005, the Indians finished 79-83 in 2006 despite a +88 run differential that would have projected to 89 wins. Last season, after falling in Game 7 of the 2007 ALCS, the Tribe had a +44 run differential, that of a team that would be expected to win almost 86 games. They won 81. The chances of the first season happening were astronomically bad. Last season was just a little bit of poor luck (not to mention an awful bullpen). The Tribe did use last year as an opportunity to re-evaluate the bullpen, signing Cubs closer Kerry Wood to take over the ninth inning in 2009. Whether he'll help settle Rafael Betancourt and Rafael Perez back into their more familiar roles could determine how Cleveland's season goes.

The Indians finished the 2008 season with the AL Cy Young winner (Cliff Lee) and arguably the best hitter in the American League (Grady Sizemore), but also dealt with some key injuries both offensively and in the rotation. Considered among the favorites for the AL Central crown in 2009, they'll need Sizemore and Lee to continue to establish themselves as franchise players, while they'll need Victor Martinez, Travis Hafner, and Fausto Carmona to bounce back in order to win the division.

Preferred Reading: Let's Go Tribe!

Food for Thought

There are a ton of options with the lineup. Though the immediate thought is that you'd like to get Grady Sizemore into a run-producing spot in the order, he is your best OBP option with speed, and the Indians lack any other true leadoff options.

DeRosa figures to slip significantly in fantasy leagues, but he's the best fit for the second spot in the order. He doesn't have a great contact rate, but he hits fairly well for average with some pop between Sizemore and the heart of the order.

At 100%, Travis Hafner is your third hitter, but we simply don't know if he's going to be there. Coming off of shoulder surgery and an awful season (not like V-Mart had much of a year), Hafner should be dropped into a less important spot in the order until he proves he's ready to resume mashing. With the hopes of saving his knees and the fact that Kelly Shoppach emerged as a stud in his absence last season, Martinez will spend a lot of time over at first base. He'll still catch as well, though. They'll be making sure they can get his bat in the lineup as often as possible, meaning Garko and Shoppach will basically be platooning (at different positions) depending on where V-Mart is playing that day.

Peralta is a three or five hitter in most lineups, but we're going to stick him in that cleanup spot that the Tribe is expected to. He doesn't have quite the power of your typical cleanup man, but he's got the power to hit 30 bombs. He's strong with runners on as well.

Shoppach and Garko can both mash, and there's been a bit of an experiment with the Indians getting Garko into the outfield a bit this Spring. A power-hitting catcher, Shoppach is the better fantasy option, but they'll both have their uses as they get 350-400 at bats each.

In a perfect world, both Choo and Francisco are fourth outfielders on a contending team. Choo is the better option of the two for now, as he hit .309/.397/.549 in his first full season with the club. He'll likely hold down the starting job without having to deal with a platoon in right.

Francisco is the one bat in the lineup that probably needs replacing, and top prospect Matt LaPorta could well be the guy to do that. He'll probably have to wait a while, though, as the expectation is that he'll start the year in AAA. Francisco has more power than either of the second leadoff types vying for the last staring job in the infield.

Expect Asdrubal Cabrera and Jamey Carroll to split time this season, either pushing DeRosa to third on occasion or covering the hot corner themselves. Neither figures to have a ton of fantasy value, but their goal will be to get on base in front of Grady Sizemore as the lineup turns over.

Fantasy Factors

Grady Sizemore is the unquestioned top choice in the Indians' lineup. His batting average may disappoint standard 5X5 leaguers, but he has outstanding discipline (read, OBP of 100+ points higher than his Avg.), great power, and outstanding speed. Sizemore had his fourth straight 100 run season last year as he joined the 30/30 club for the first time, bashing 33 homers and swiping 38 bags. Arguably the top outfielder in fantasy, Sizemore probably shouldn't make it out of the top ten picks.

Up second, we'll go with Jhonnny Peralta. He may spell his name strangely, but Peralta brings a nice average/power combination to the shortstop position. Batting in a premium spot in the order, he should be expected to challenge the 100 RBI mark, and he'll also score a ton of runs in a lineup that could be stacked.

In the third spot in both the lineup and fantasy value, we'll go with Victor Martinez. V-Mart is coming off of an extremely disappointing season, but he's a proven .300/20+/100 option at the thinnest position in baseball. Expect a rebound, even though he'll spend a lot of time at first base.

Next up, we'll go with the man who will share time with Martinez (and Ryan Garko), Kelly Shoppach. While there are certainly a couple of players on the Tribe who could (should) have more value, Shoppach is the least risky of the bunch. Healthy and coming off of a breakout .261/.348/.517 season with 21 homers, Shoppach will get enough playing time to make an impact in leagues of any size.

It's time to take a gamble, and here's where we'll put Travis Hafner. Pronk hit just .197 with 5 homers in 198 at bats before shutting it down with a shoulder injury last season, but he's still just a few seasons removed from a monstrous .308/.439/.659 season with 42 homers and 117 RBI. If healthy, Hafner is still in his prime, and should expect a major rebound.

Following Hafner, we'll go with the multi-position eligibility of Mark DeRosa. At 32 last year, DeRosa had what we'll almost certainly look back at as a career year, hitting 21 bombs while batting .285 for the Cubs. The Jake may limit his power a bit more than Wrigley Field did, though he's likely to hit for average with 15 homers again. Given that he'll be eligible at second and third base, DeRosa should be a solid play in mixed leagues.

Shin-Soo Choo is a little old for a prospect, but had a terrific half season as a rookie, batting .309/.397/.549 with 14 homers, 68 Runs, and 66 RBI in just 317 at bats. Already in his prime, Choo should have little trouble retaining his job to begin the 2009 campaign, and could well hit 20 homers. He's probably a reserve in standard mixed leagues until we see a little more, but he'll make for a solid third outfielder in deep or AL-Only Leagues.

Ryan Garko lacks the power of a starting first baseman in fantasy leagues, but he hits well enough to be considered as a reserve or utility player in deeper mixed leagues. He's a solid starter in AL-Only formats. Garko is a .282 lifetime hitter with a little patience and power to the gaps. In Cleveland's lineup, that should still add up to a lot of RBI (and did last year... 90 of them), meaning he'll help you in a few categories. The concern is that a healthy Victor Martinez will push him to the bench a lot more often.

Ben Francisco was a decent power/speed threat in the minors, but only half of that translated in his first extended shot at a big league role. Francisco certainly has 15-20 homer power in left field if he gets enough at bats, but you have to think that the presence of Dellucci (in the bigs) and Matt LaPorta (assuming that he tears up AAA as expected) could push him into either a platoon role or a role as a fourth outfielder.

Expected to split time, it's doubtful that either Asdrubal Cabrera or Jamey Carroll get enough at bats to be difference makers in standard mixed leagues. Either could have their place as a MI (if your league uses them) in a deeper mixed league, and either could be a quality starter in AL-Only Leagues. Cabrera, a high average-hitter throughout his minor league career with 20-25 steal speed, would be the more intriguing option for fantasy owners. They should both score plenty of runs in one of the better offenses (if healthy) in the league.

Projected Rotation

Cliff Lee
Fausto Carmona
Anthony Reyes
Carl Pavano
Aaron Laffey/Zach Jackson

The battle for the fifth spot could also include former top prospect Jeremy Sowers and middling prospect Scott Lewis. Laffey, coming off of a pretty nice showing in 2008, would appear to be the favorite. It's really just sad that Pavano is all but guaranteed a rotation spot, though he could be the odd man out if some of the kids surprise.

Lee entered the 2008 season coming off of an atrocious campaign that had seen him sent down to Akron to try and re-find himself. He finished the season as the AL Cy Young, going 22-3 with a 2.54 ERA, a 1.11 WHIP, and 170 strikeouts in 223 innings. As an Expos/Nats fan, if I hadn't already spouted curses after Brandon Phillips' 30/30 season in 2007, Sizemore and Lee had me doing so even more last season. Lee's probably somewhere in between what we saw last year and what we saw in the years leading up to his 2007 breakdown. Bank on a low-to-mid three ERA with a low WHIP and about 160-180 strikeouts. He's unlikely to win 22 games again, but 18-20 won't be out of the question.

The Tribe will be hoping for a Lee-like revival from Fausto Carmona. Carmona established himself as one of the best young pitchers in baseball with a dominant 19-8, 3.06 ERA, 1.21 WHIP campaign in 2007. His follow up was certainly nothing to write home about. Carmona struggled badly with his command, actually walking a dozen more hitters than he struck out in 120 innings. He walked nine more batters in 2008 than he did in 2007..... in 95 less innings of work. The tools are there, with a massive power sinker as his primary out pitch. He won't strike a lot of hitters out, but he'll keep them driving the ball into the ground all day. Bank on a rebound, but don't overpay. At best, Carmona should be considered a fourth or fifth starter with a lot of upside on draft day.

While that's about it for fantasy relevant starters in the Indians' rotation, we'll continue down the line. Anthony Reyes was widely considered a failed prospect in St. Louis. While those primary numbers that fantasy owners look at (his ERA, 1.83, and his WHIP, 1.25) looked outstanding after the trade, the numbers that lead to that just aren't there. Reyes struck out just 15 batters in 34+ innings with the Indians against twelve walks. He wasn't really that much less hittable than he had been in St. Louis, though he was a little. The key factor in that (small sample size) showing for Cleveland was that he cut his home run rate significantly. Reyes has all the tools to have a big season, but don't draft him in a mixed league based on six starts. He's worth a look in AL-Only Leagues, and he's still young enough to turn into a quality starter.

Carl Pavano has been the butt of many jokes over the past few years. After signing an outrageous deal with the Yankees, Pavano made just 26 starts (most of them awful) in three years in New York. Cleveland signed him at a much more reasonable $1.5 million for 2009. He's a huge injury risk, and he's never been much in the strikeout department. Linked to a couple of awful situations in his career (arguably the worst contract of the decade.... hey... Darren Dreifort's right there with him.... he also allowed Mark McGwire's 70th homer in 1998), Pavano is still just 31, and may be able to turn it around. There's a lot less pressure (both financially, and in less of a chaotic environment) on Pavano in Cleveland. Still, do you want to take that chance?

Based on his 4.23 ERA in sixteen starts and his status as a solid prospect, Aaron Laffey enters camp as the favorite to win the fifth job. The 23-year-old lefty is unlikely to perform well enough in the strikeout category to help you, and the expectation is that the league has made some adjustments (see... 8 runs allowed in each of his final two big league starts last season) to him. It may take some time for him to re-adjust, making him a poor gamble for the 2009 season.

Zach Jackson hasn't shown us much in a couple of (albeit brief) trials at the big league level. Acquired in the C.C. Sabathia deal, Jackson had a 5.60 ERA and 1.43 WHIP in 54+ innings with the Tribe last season. His career minor league numbers (4.60, 1.43, 370 K in 536 IP) don't tell us a much better story. He's presented the best challenge for Laffey so far this Spring, but should be expected to return to Akron.

Once considered one of the Indians' top pitching prospects, Jeremy Sowers burst onto the scene with a 3.57 ERA and 1.19 WHIP in 2006. The writing was on the wall when you looked at his strikeout rate, though. Sowers struck out just 35 batters in 88 innings as a rookie, and after a poor start to the 2007 season and another poor showing upon returning (thanks to injuries) to the rotation last season, Sowers now boasts a 5.14 career ERA and 1.41 WHIP. Still just 25, Sowers has the stuff (even without the strikeouts) to turn it back around, but it's unlikely that he'll get the chance. Even if he does, you don't want to do anything more than shove him on your watch list.

Bullpen

Closer: Kerry Wood
Setup: Rafael Betancourt, Rafael Perez
Other Arms of Interest: Jensen Lewis, Joe Smith

Kerry Wood learned on the fly as the Cubs' closer last season, but certainly showed that he could handle the role in his first extended look as a reliever. The converted starter still showcased that dominant fastball and filthy curve as he struck out 84 batters in 66 innings. He was generally able to avoid blowups, finishing 5-4 with 33 saves in 39 chances, a 3.26 ERA, and a 1.09 WHIP. For those of you who aren't so sure what that means, we're talking about an above average second tier closer with some potential to improve in his second year in the role.

A strong 2006 and an absolutely dominant 2007 (1.47 ERA, 0.76 WHIP, 80 K in 79 IP) made Rafael Betancourt one of the more sought after non-closing relievers in fantasy drafts last year. However, when Betancourt got the chance to take over the ninth, he pretty much fell apart. Following a woeful 2008 that saw his ERA jump to 5.07 and his WHIP (1.42) nearly double, he won't be quite so difficult to snag in 2009. He's in for a big bounceback season, and while he isn't likely to have any chance at getting saves, he could still be a valuable late round option in any format.

Rafael Perez also saw his ERA skyrocket, from 1.78 (2007) to 3.54. He didn't struggle nearly as much as Betancourt, and there's a lot more hope for a rebound. Perez, 26, was in just his second season in the majors. The primary lefty in the Indians 'pen, Perez struck out 86 batters in 76 innings last season, and still figures to be an arm on the rise. Usable in all formats, Perez figures to be a solid reliever who will help your strikeout production as well as bring down the ERA and WHIP after a bad outing from a starter.

With a couple of strong, established arms already in the bullpen behind Joe Borowski, Jensen Lewis was an afterthought as a potential closing candidate. However, he was the one pitcher who finally stuck in the role after Borowski's injury. He has a big arm capable of a strikeout an inning, and his minor league production (3.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, 276 K in 278 innings) is nothing to sneeze at. While the addition of Wood certainly means that he won't be handed the ball in the ninth, Lewis could still be a factor down the road. He also looks like a solid AL-Only or deep mixed league option in the bullpen.... The club also added Joe Smith as the third team in the Mets/Mariners megadeal. Smith relies more on deception than anything else, but was an effective setup man in New York the past two years. Though his fastball won't blow anyone away, he's still managed to strike out nearly a batter an inning in two big league seasons, and projects as a fine setup man with an outside shot at closing down the road. Honestly, I think we've already seen his ceiling, but that's not a bad thing.

On the Whole

The additions of Wood and Smith should help to solidify the Indians' key weakness (the bullpen) from last season. While the cost of Franklin Gutierrez doesn't figure to be anything that will hurt them that badly, though, a lot of things are going to be up in the air. There's no question they can contend in what figures to be a pretty wide open AL Central, but I'm not seeing them as a heavy favorite.

The offense can be great, but there are some injury concerns. The rotation has a couple of really good arms, but the back three (back four, considering Carmona's performance last year) all have a lot of question marks. The bullpen can't be worse. In fact, if everything breaks right, it could be one of the better 'pens in the American League. The Indians certainly look like a team that could challenge the 96 wins they had in 2008. They also look like a team that could hover around .500 for much of the year. Figure on those two meeting somewhere in the middle, and I think they win the AL Central with about 88 wins.

Over/Under: 88 Wins

Over/Under: 82 Wins

I'll be running the over/under throughout the team previews. We'd love to hear your feedback. Can the Cleveland Indians manage a +7 win differential and win 88 games or more this season? Why, or why not?

Next up: Arizona Diamondbacks (82-80)

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