Marlins Preview: Will Perpetual Rebuilding Lead to Another Winning Season?

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It seems like we've seen this all before. A few years ago, the Florida Marlins traded away former World Series hero Josh Beckett and Mike Lowell, only to suddenly wind up with one of today's biggest stars in the game, Hanley Ramirez, as well as solid starter Anibal Sanchez and a couple of minor leaguers. Prior to last season, the Fish dealt away star slugger Miguel Cabrera and another hero from the pitching staff of that World Series team, Dontrelle Willis. Their return was a bit less immediate, but Cameron Maybin figures to play a big role in the lineup this season. Somehow, the Marlins still came out of the 2007-08 offseason smelling like roses, as they scored just 20 less runs and won thirteen more games in spite of losing Cabrera.

For their next act, the Florida Marlins have let a few more of the players that were responsible for last year's surprising showing walk. They began in late October, when they dealt slugging first baseman Mike Jacobs, who hit 32 homers last season, to the Kansas City Royals for reliever Leo Nunez. Shortly thereafter, they moved the salaries of left-handed starting pitcher Scott Olsen and LF Josh Willingham to the division rival Washington Nationals for Emilio Bonifacio and a pair of low-level prospects. Do they have the pieces to make Miami forget about Jacobs, Olsen, and Willingham? If they were able to replace Cabrera, Willis, and Beckett as easily as they did, you have to think there's a chance.

Preferred Reading: Fish Stripes

Food for Thought

I don't have many changes with this lineup, but we'll discuss what I'd do anyway. Based on his minor league production as both an on base type (.389 career OBP) and a burner on the basepaths, Maybin would seem to be the best fit they have for the leadoff spot. He clearly stays there.

Jeremy Hermida's 138 strikeouts in just 502 at bats were the second highest total on the Marlins. Baker displayed both a fine batting eye (30 walks in 227 plate appearances) and a stronger contact rate (48 K in 197 AB isn't great or anything, but five guys struck out 100+ times on this team). He's the best bet to move the runner along in front of Ramirez.

Hanley Ramirez had shown great power, tremendous speed, and a great ability to hit for average in his first two seasons with the club. He improved on the power production last season. He's a no-brainer to bat in the third spot where he can likely do the most damage.

I'll take the patience and all or nothing swing of Uggla over Cantu in the cleanup spot. First off, he has more raw power. Secondly, while he does strike out a lot (171 times last season, to be exact), he never gets cheated at the dish. We know what we're going to see out of Uggla, while you have to be a little more skeptical about Cantu's "breakout" 2008 campaign. Why? Cantu "broke out" in 2005, too, didn't he? I don't remember seeing him do much of anything (in the rare times when he was in a big league lineup) between 2005 and last season. Beyond that, Uggla actually draws the occasional walk (significantly more patient hitter than Cantu).

Though he's yet to have his own expected breakout, Jeremy Hermida projects as possibly the third best power production hitter on the club. You have to put him in a spot where he'll have some chances to drive in runs. The sixth spot isn't as prominent as the fifth spot would be, but Cantu's production last season says he deserves the nod.

The Helms/McPherson debate is something that the Marlins are arguing this Spring. While they'll likely fit in a platoon of some sort, chances are that it won't be a traditional platoon. Helms is the more polished hitter (think of McPherson as a left-handed Troy Glaus with a little less power... in other words, 30 homers are a possibility.... 200 strikeouts would be in a full season as well), though he bats right-handed. Helms will get the majority of the starts, but McPherson will steal plenty of time away from him.

Fantasy Factors

Hanley Ramirez has become the consensus top pick in fantasy leagues this season, and with good reason. The man hit 33 homers and stole 35 bases from the shortstop position last season. He also hit .301 and scored 125 runs. Most likely officially batting in the third spot all year in 2009, the run total may come down a bit. However, the RBI total (67 a year ago) will almost certainly come up to go along with it. While we probably shouldn't expect him to ever top the 50 steal mark (a figure he surpassed in 2006 and 2007) now that he's batting lower in the order, he'll still steal about 30 bases for the next decade. As great as Albert Pujols is, Hanley Ramirez is an obvious choice at the top spot.

Next, we'll go with the steady power production of Dan Uggla, who has hit 27, 31, and 32 homers respectively in three years with the club since being drafted as a Rule V pick. Thirty homer power is difficult to come by from a position usually dominated by slap-hitting speedsters. Uggla is capable of killing your batting average a bit, and he won't steal any bases. However, his home run and RBI production alone make him a borderline top five option at second base.

That's where it gets a lot more shady. While I just can't stand him for this year, we'll go with Jorge Cantu coming off of a monster 2008 campaign in the third spot. Despite all but disappearing after his .284/28/117 campaign in 2005, Cantu looked like he'd never missed a beat last season. Playing in a low-pressure situation on a team not expected to contend, Cantu hit .277 with 29 homers and 95 RBI in 628 at bats. He'll carry first base and third base (better fantasy position) eligibility into the 2009 season, though he'll likely be the everyday starter at first in place of the departed Jacobs.

Up next, we'll go with breakout candidate Jeremy Hermida who has simply appeared to regress each year since he first got the call to the majors for one reason or another (some of which have to do with injuries). Once considered amongst the most patient young power prospects in the minors, Hermida hasn't lived up to that pedigree at all as a big league hitter. He's just looked jumpy throughout his first three full seasons in the bigs, and drew just 48 walks in 550 plate appearances last season. His power dropped off significantly as well, as he slugged just .406 in 2008 after showing some life (.502) in 2007. He'll rebound and maybe have mixed league value as a third or fourth outfielder.

Moving along, we have the outstanding speed threat Cameron Maybin. Maybin has the potential to develop plenty of power as well. However, we'd gladly settle for a dozen homers and 25-30 steals in his rookie campaign, provided he can hit for average. Maybin has done just that in his minor league career, batting .298 lifetime as he's progressed through AA ball. Just 21, Maybin's athletic ability points to him being a huge fantasy factor down the road. He's just probably not going to be there yet.

Cody Ross showed plenty of power as the fourth outfielder for the Marlins in 2006 and 2007, so it really shouldn't have surprised too many people that he hit 22 homers in his first shot at extended playing time last season. While Ross has some speed and can hit for average in spurts, the power really seems to be the only tool fantasy owners should be looking for from him. He's probably limited to NL-Only Leagues, though he could have a place as a depth type in deeper mixed leagues.

John Baker would end up with a significantly better shot at making a fantasy impact in my scenario (batting second), which is an idea that the Marlins have apparently toyed with a bit this Spring. His best attribute would seem to be his ability to hit for average. A lifetime .277 minor league hitter, the journeyman catcher has just 46 homers in 2,159 minor league at bats. He's NL-Only fodder unless your league requires you to carry two catchers.

Wes Helms and Dallas McPherson figure to cut into each others' playing time a bit too much for either of them to have a mixed league impact. If one emerges, they may have a shot at doing some damage. Fantasy owners should be pulling for McPherson, whose power is for real. As it stands, expect both to have a fair share of value as a CI or utility player in NL-Only Leagues. Apart from that, don't bother.

Projected Rotation

Ricky Nolasco
Josh Johnson
Chris Volstad
Andrew Miller
Anibal Sanchez

The Fish do appear to be set with their rotation, and it's not nearly as bad as you would expect when you look at their payroll. Ricky Nolasco busted loose last year, going 15-8 with a 3.52 ERA, a 1.10 WHIP, and 186 strikeouts in 210+ innings. Still just hitting his prime, Nolasco certainly has the potential to put up similar numbers a couple of more times in his career. However, don't overpay. He'd shown glimpses of his promise in the past, but nothing like this. Expect the ERA to come back up around 4.00 and the WHIP to come back up to around 1.25. His BABIP (.284) was about sixteen points lower than the league average last season, and should regress towards the league mean.

We feel a bit better about Josh Johnson repeating (or improving upon) his numbers from last season. Johnson showed what he could do over a full season in 2006, going 12-7 with a 3.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP as a rookie. However, Tommy John surgery cost him most of 2007 and the first half of 2008. He looked like that same kid we saw in 2006 upon his return, keeping a terrific 77:27 K:BB ratio in 87 innings while allowing just over a hit an inning and finishing the year with a 3.61 ERA and 1.35 WHIP. Johnson enters the 2009 season as a solid third or fourth fantasy starter with number two upside.

While 22-year-old Chris Volstad is considered amongst the Marlins' top prospects, he may not have quite the impact as a fantasy player that he can as a big-leaguer. He simply shouldn't be expected to carry enough in the strikeout department. He'll likely top off as a third or fourth fantasy starter for this reason, but it may mean that we see his ceiling a little quicker than we would with a power pitcher. Volstad has displayed cotntrol and command beyond his years throughout his minor league career, and figures to emerge as one of the better groundball pitchers of his era. He may take some lumps this season after a surprisingly dominant 2.88 ERA and 1.33 WHIP as a rookie, but he's going to be a really sound starter near the top of a big league rotation long term.

Considered amongst the top prospects in baseball upon being drafted by the Detroit Tigers a few years ago, Andrew Miller has yet to put it together so far. Part of the problem could have to do with an awkward delivery to the plate which cuts down on his velocity and command a bit. Miller doesn't do it as much as he used to, but he tends to throw across his body. He got a significantly longer look with the Fish than he did the previous year in Detroit, and he did show a bit of progress by cutting his walk rate down a bit. However, the overall results (5.87 WHIP, 1.64 WHIP, .289 BAA) still weren't pretty. He's being touted as a sleeper by many, but I think it's going to take a little more time for Miller to start showing results, assuming it happens at all.

After looking like an absolute steal in the first year after the Marlins acquired him, Anibal Sanchez has missed much of the last two years due to injury and ineffectiveness. Take that poor second half statline (2-5, 5.57 ERA, 1.57 WHIP, though he did have 50 K in 51 IP) with a grain of salt, as he was returning from shoulder surgery. Still, he enters the 2009 campaign as a guy to stash on your watch list in mixed leagues at best. He'd make for a decent NL-Only option.

Bullpen

Closer: Matt Lindstrom

Yeah... we've been covering the setup men and some other arms of note throughout this series. There really aren't any in Florida, outside of possibly Renyel Pinto and Ryan Tucker (possible starter down the line with nice minor league numbers. Lindstrom is somewhat intriguing.

Matt Lindstrom doesn't miss as many bats as you would expect he would based on the pure velocity on his fastball. He routinely throws in the high 90s, and has hit triple digits a few times. Unfortunately, there's just not much movement on his fastball, making it a little easier for hitters to catch up to it. Regardless, he's been an effective reliever working out of the setup role for the past couple of seasons, and looked strong in a late-season trial as he replaced Kevin Gregg at the back of the bullpen. He's certainly not going to be anywhere near the elite closing options, and some middle relievers/sleeper save sources could probably go before him in your draft. However, with a lack of any real internal options to replace him, Lindstrom should have little trouble holding down the closer's spot. That should be good for 25 saves at the bare minimum. His ERA and WHIP won't kill you, but you'd hope for a little more production in the strikeout department to go along with the saves.

On the Whole

Honestly, while the Marlins have certainly proven me wrong in the past by dumping guys like Cabrera and somehow getting better, this is the year that it all catches up to them. Losing Jacobs, Willingham, and Olsen isn't nearly as dramatic as losing Cabrera (or Beckett and Lowell, for that matter) was, but the pieces just don't seem to be there. They should have a pretty solid offense, but there are a lot of questions beyond that. Their third, fourth, and fifth starters (heck... all five of their starters) have some upside entering the campaign, but it would be foolish to think they all hit with that potential. The bullpen doesn't only lack an experienced closer, but it lacks more than a couple of really good arms in any role. While the offense should be able to carry the Fish to about 70 wins, I just don't see them getting much further than that.

Over/Under: 72 Wins

I'll be running the over/under throughout the team previews. We'd love to hear your feedback. Can the Florida Marlins avoid a -12 win differential and win 72 games or more this season? Why, or why not?

Next up: St. Louis Cardinals (86-76)

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