Red Sox Preview: Always a Bridesmaid?

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While the Boston Red Sox have won two World Series titles in the past five seasons, they've won just one AL East crown (2007) since 1995. With the team they usually ended up finishing second to (the Yankees) having a bit of a down season, hopes were high that the Red Sox could win their second straight division title. However, something funny happened along the way. The perennial doormat Tampa Bay Rays finally had that season where everything clicked. While the Rays made a 31 win jump, the Red Sox actually took a (very) minor hit in the win column, finishing a game behind what they'd done in 2007. The result was a two game deficit at the end of the season. As usual, the Sox settled for the wildcard.

When they weren't bickering back and forth with star slugger Manny Ramirez (traded in July), the Red Sox did certainly find some positives to draw from. Dustin Pedroia developed from pesky second baseman into the AL MVP. The Greek God of Walks stopped just taking pitches and started sending a few more over the wall. Just a year removed from cancer treatment, Jon Lester developed into a stud atop the rotation. Most importantly, the team found a way to infuse that youth as the veterans surrounding them started to show signs of their aging. Will that new-found youth continue to improve? We'll see.

Preferred Reading: Over the Monster & Surviving Grady

Food For Thought

Jacoby Ellsbury showed tremendous speed (50 steals) with a fair ability to get on base last season. He's there in the average-hitting department, but we'd like to see a little more plate patience. Pedroia is an ideal fit behind him, with 20 steal speed, enough power to drive Ellsbury in on occasion, and an excellent contact rate.

Ortiz is the team's best slugger, and might actually be a better fit for the cleanup spot than the three hole. While his average was down considerably last year (.264 after batting .332 in 2007), that's not the reason for the change. Ortiz is more of a raw power threat than either Bay or Youkilis (the two candidates to bat cleanup if Papi stays in the three-hole) while both Bay and Youkilis do a bit more in terms of hitting the ball to all fields and hitting for average. As I'm convinced Youkilis played out of his mind last season and Bay didn't (essentially, they had very similar numbers), I'm going with Bay in the three hole.

Youkilis provides Ortiz with strong protection from the fifth spot in the order, as he's developed into an extreme average hitter with above average (or terrific, if you buy into last year) power. While his patience has slipped a bit two years running, that could just mean that he's becoming more adept at finding those pitches that he wants to drive.

J.D. Drew remains one of the five biggest injury risks in baseball, but he's also a terrific left-handed bat in the lineup when he's actually on the field. He provides enough power to handle a run-producing spot in the order, though he's not as consistent (or consistently healthy) as Youkilis or Bay. Lowell is coming off of an injury-plagued season in his own right, having missed much of the season's last two months with a hip injury. He still brings plenty of power to the table as well as a great glove, but at 35, time's starting to run out.

Speaking of aging former stars, Jason Varitek will turn 37 just a week into the season and is coming off of the worst offensive season of his career. While his track record suggests that he should rebound a bit in 2009, there's not much hope that he'll get anywhere near his previous .275 with 20 homer power level. Jed Lowrie is among the more overhyped prospects in baseball, but that's not to say he won't be a good fit for Boston. He does get on base frequently, and he has shown flashes of marginal power throughout his minor league career. He doesn't run, but does provide the club with an excellent glove up the middle. He'll be a good fit as the lineup turns over.

Fantasy Factors

While the Red Sox may lack the extreme talents that we saw in our last team preview, they do have a ton of depth with their fantasy options. Dustin Pedroia has jumped to the top of the depth chart here because of his ability to hit for a high average and possibly challenge the 20/20 plateau at second base. The fact that there are no real weaknesses in the Red Sox lineup makes him a threat as both a run scorer and run producer. He finished last season with 118 Runs and 83 RBI batting from the two hole, and there's no saying that he won't be able to achieve those numbers again with the talent around him. Going in the late second/early third round, people are paying a premium price for Pedroia, but the AL MVP could definitely be worth it.

For all the talk about Ramirez, the Red Sox probably ended up with the better all-around player in Jason Bay when they dealt him last summer. Ramirez remains the better hitter, but is approaching the end of his career. Bay is considerably better in the field, is a stud in his own right at the plate, and is about eight years younger (as well as considerably cheaper). Bay brings an added speed dimension that Ramirez didn't, as he swiped ten bags last season. While his power production isn't elite, it's well above average. Bay has hit 30 or more bombs in three of his five seasons in the big leagues. A well-rounded outfielder who will help out in all five categories, Bay will usually go in the fourth round of standard leagues.

Up next, we'll take the four letter network's (well... second) favorite slugger, David Ortiz. Papi had a down year in 2008, leading a lot of people to wonder if he's done. They're completely insane to think that's the case. If I hear that he's old one more time, I'm going to take my (four months older) fist and shove it right down someone's throat. Ortiz's problems in 2008 were largely due to a wrist injury that sapped his power a bit. The dropoff in batting average was a bit scarier, though that can be largely attributed to a slow start (.198 in April). While we probably shouldn't be looking for Ortiz to hit .300+ with 45 homers ever again, there's something to be said for the expected .280-35-110 season that we'll see from him if he's healthy. His draft stock has taken a considerable hit, but name recognition alone gets him drafted in the first five or six rounds.

Following Papi, we'll go with the breakout speed of Jacoby Ellsbury, who stole 50 bags in his first full season. Ellsbury doesn't bring the power that we'd like to see out of a number two outfielder, but he's not exactly Juan Pierre or Michael Bourn with the stick either. He hit 9 homers as a rookie and 20 in just over 1,000 minor league at bats. While he doesn't ever figure to develop big power, there's the potential for him to become a 15 homer, 40+ stolen base guy from year to year. Ellsbury does hit for average as well, and he's going to score a ton of runs in front of Pedroia, Ortiz, Bay, and Youkilis. A solid second outfielder in any format, Ellsbury should go in the fifth or sixth round in mixed leagues.

Following Ellsbury, we'll go with the player who is usually the second or third Red Sox player drafted, Kevin Youkilis. Youkilis may have turned a corner last season, as he actually hit exactly as many home runs (29) as he did in his first two full seasons combined. He also boosted his batting average above .300 for the first time, hitting .312. While this did come at the expense of his walk total, he still finished with exactly the same OBP (.390) that he did in 2007... and the batting average was more valuable to fantasy owners. Youkilis has watched his walk totals drop from 91 to 77 and finally to 62 in the past three seasons, so he's either not as patient as he once was or he's being just as selective but learning what pitches he can drive a bit better. The negative is that his home run total looks to be something of an outlier compared to his first few big league seasons and his minor league totals. His home run to fly ball rate was just plain incredible last season, and simply can't continue. In order to get Youk, you're probably going to have to spend third or fourth round value. He's probably worth a sixth or seventh round pick.

Those of you who are longtime readers of the site know that I'm not a fan of J.D. "The Gimp" Drew. Drew shook off a poor 2007 and was on his way to a terrific season in 2008 before... well... you know. Drew played in just 109 games due to wrist and back injuries, looking like a potential Hall of Famer (.280/.408/.519 with 19 homers, 4 steals, 79 Runs, 64 RBI, and an ungodly 79:80 walk to strikeout ratio) when he was in the lineup. If you draft him, you will probably get a full season's worth of solid number three outfield numbers.... just realize that those numbers will come in less than 120 games. The production when he's healthy makes him a solid pickup in the thirteenth or fourteenth round. If he does stay healthy, you'll probably reap the reward of a number one outfielder. It shouldn't matter, though, as you won't win your league because hell will have officially frozen over.

Mike Lowell will still have his place in mixed leagues this season, though it's likely going to be as a utility option instead of a starting third baseman. Getting on in age and coming off of a hip problem, Lowell still belted 17 homers and knocked in 73 runs despite just 419 at bats in 2008. While he's never been a stud average-hitter, Lowell does provide enough pop so that he's a worthwhile option if he can remain healthy. While he hasn't had many injury problems throughout his career, the fact that the hip injury figures to be something that could recur and the fact that he's getting older should be significant red flags. He's worth a shot, provided you can get him after the eighteenth round or so.

Jason Varitek's stock took a major hit last season as he batted just .220 with 13 homers in 423 at bats. The power still seems to be there in spurts, but Varitek just doesn't look like the all-around hitter that he was earlier in his career. The possibility is there for a rebound, but batting low (even in this one) in the order will limit his run production skills a bit. George Kottaras figures to start stealing time away from him as well. He should be limited to AL-Only Leagues, as the catcher position looks deeper than it has been in years.

Jed Lowrie should probably eventually develop into a guy with double digit home run power and he has pretty good on base skills. While he's probably already close to his ceiling, it's doubtful that will mean much of anything to mixed league owners in 2009. Lowrie has the potential to hit .280 with 10-12 homers, but his RBI opportunities will be limited and he doesn't run.

Projected Rotation

Josh Beckett
Jon Lester
Daisuke Matsuzaka
Tim Wakefield
Brad Penny

The sad part is that I could go about three deeper with guys who would probably start on most big league clubs. You have to assume that John Smoltz will start when he's healthy around midseason, while Clay Buchholz and Michael Bowden would start in most rotations around the league. Alas, not in Boston.

After contending for a Cy Young award in 2007, expectations were high for Josh Beckett entering last season. It's hard to call a 12-10 season with a 4.03 ERA, a 1.19 WHIP, and just under a strikeout an inning a disappointment, but it was. Throughout his career, Beckett has gained a reputation as a postseason stud, but he's only posted a few regular seasons that could be truly considered outstanding statistically. He's going to strike out around a batter an inning and he's going to finish with an ERA somewhere that's probably a bit under 4.00. If you believe in the odd/even year thing, Beckett has been significantly better in odd years in terms of his ERA and WHIP.

Jon Lester was a great story in 2008. Just a year after he'd undergone cancer treatment, Lester not only threw a no-hitter, but was arguably the best starter on a staff that fell just a game shy of a third World Series trip in the past five seasons. Lester doesn't provide the strikeout potential that some of the other Red Sox starters do, but he does keep the ball down, allowing just 14 homers in 2008. Based on his fantastic showing in 2008 (16-6, 3.21 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 152 K in 210 IP), Lester's probably going a bit higher than he should in this year's drafts, but he's a solid second starter in a mixed league.

The one pitcher that we should expect to come down based on last year's performance is Daisuke Matsuzaka. Known for great stuff and good control in Japan, one of those two things failed him in 2008. Matsuzaka led all AL starters with 94 walks in 2008, something which created a lot of deep counts, high pitch counts, and short outings. To show how bad that was, those 94 walks came in just 167 innings of work. He was particularly lucky with his strand rate last season, somehow keeping his ERA at 2.90 despite allowing 1.32 baserunners per inning. Matsuzaka also got particularly strong bullpen support, finishing with 18 wins despite not pitching deep into very many ballgames. Matsuzaka is generally going in the fifth or sixth rounds of drafts, but if he's anything like the pitcher we saw last season, an implosion is on the way in 2009. Expect value around the tenth or twelfth round.

You would think that Tim Wakefield is getting ready to give up the ghost. While most knuckleballers see less wear and tear on their arms, the complement of young hurlers behind him in Boston are eager to take over his spot in the rotation. Wakefield responded with yet another strong season in 2008, allowing just a 4.13 ERA and an insane 1.18 WHIP. Wakefield is battling some shoulder issues this Spring, though he'll again begin the year in the rotation. While he should be expected to post an ERA in the mid-fours, his WHIP is bound to come up a touch in 2009. Wakefield doesn't post the strikeout numbers we'd like to see out of anything but a back-end fantasy starter, so bid accordingly.

Though the Red Sox already had a rotation that could have run six or seven deep without them, credit GM Theo Epstein with realizing a couple of undervalued starters in Brad Penny and Smoltz this offseason. Penny pitched through injury last season, leading to his ERA more than doubling (literally... from 3.03 in 2007 to 6.27 last season) as well as his WHIP and strikeout rates taking a major hit. Still in the prime of his career, Penny looks to be over the shoulder issues that plagued him last season, and should be a solid back-end starter for both the Red Sox and your fantasy squad.

Bullpen

Closer: Jonathan Papelbon
Setup: Takashi Saito, Hideki Okajima
Other Arms of Interest: Ramon Ramirez, Justin Masterson

Since deciding he'd rather return to the bullpen full-time, Jonathan Papelbon has been one of the top closers in the game. It's worth noting, however, that Papelbon's peripheral numbers have taken a hit two years running. Paps' numbers across the board were down last season, as he watched his strikeout rate drop from just under 13 K:9 to 10 K:9. He also saw his WHIP rise from 0.78 to 0.95 while his ERA jumped about half a point (1.85 to 2.34). The scary thing is, all three of those are numbers we expect to see from a top tier closer. Expect similar production in 2009, and make him one of the top four closers to leave the board.

As it seems is always the case, the teams with money are able to poach more valuable players around the league that could fit into a more significant role on a smaller market club. This is the case with Takashi Saito, who was the closer for another large market ballclub in Los Angeles the past two seasons. He'll serve as a setup man in Boston this season, and those of us in leagues with holds should expect big things. Saito missed a lot of time last season with a torn elbow ligament, but he's proven to be capable of 11+ strikeouts per nine innings in his first three big league seasons. He also had career worsts (in America) with a 2.49 ERA and 1.19 WHIP (if you're thinking those are pretty darned good, you're right). Though he's 39 and approaching the end of his career, Saito figures to be money in the eighth for Boston.... Like Saito, fellow Japanese pitcher Hideki Okajima saw his peripheral numbers rise last season. Again, they were still strong. Okajima was a little more hittable and allowed a few more walks in his second season in America. He still finished with an ERA of 2.61 and a WHIP of 1.16 for the Sox while striking out just under a batter an inning. He'll be a fine addition in leagues that value holds.

Ramon Ramirez was a key return in the Coco Crisp deal with Kansas City, and is coming off of a strong season as the Royals' setup man. Ramirez had a 2.64 ERA and 1.23 WHIP with just under a strikeout an inning handling the eighth in front of closer Joakim Soria. While he figures to slot in as more of a middle reliever (and/or seventh inning guy) in Boston, Ramirez still figures to be in line for a shot at 15-20 holds in 2009. He'll do so with solid peripheral numbers to go along with it... Justin Masterson's future should lie in the rotation. In fact, he'd probably already be there in most organizations. However, in Boston, he's relegated to the bullpen behind the veterans (and Buchholz). Masterson had an outstanding rookie season, keeping a stellar 3.16 ERA and 1.22 WHIP. While his strikeout rate is considerably lower than the other fireballers in the pen, Masterson's terrific sinker helps him keep the ball down a bit more often. He'll work as the long man out of the 'pen, but it's going to take a couple of injuries to get him into the rotation.

On the Whole

Mind you, they're my second least favorite team in all of professional sports, but they've had a fine offseason. Losing Crisp doesn't hurt, as he was basically just a depth guy. Adding Saito, Penny, and Smoltz gives them a handful of veteran contributors on the pitching staff. Most importantly, some of the young guns on the offense (Pedroia, Ellsbury, Lowrie) have another year of experience under their belt. To keep going, it's difficult to imagine that Ortiz won't be better than he was in 2008 either. While the Yankees went out and spent the big bucks and the Rays gained a year of experience for their young core, Boston may have had the best offseason with some solid shrewd maneuvers.

Over/Under: 98 Wins

Can the Boston Red Sox achieve a +3 win differential and win 98 games or more in 2009? Why or why not?

Up Next: Tampa Bay Rays (97-65)

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