Cubs Preiew: The Anagram No Longer Applies

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Living in St. Louis, I'm all too familiar with the anagram that Cardinals fans have used in regards to the Cubs for years. Completely Useless By September. Simply put, it hasn't applied much this decade. Maybe if there were an O at the end, it would make a little more sense at this point. The Chicago Cubs locked up their second straight NL Central title last season, winning the division by 7.5 games over the wildcard Milwaukee Brewers. Alas, once that calendar changed to October, they were the same old lovable losers, getting swept out of the playoffs by the Los Angeles Dodgers.

The Cubs were awesome on both sides of the ball in 2008, leading the National League in runs scored (855) while finishing second in the senior circuit with 671 runs allowed and a 3.87 ERA. Their projected winning percentage based on their run differential was right in line (actually, should have been one game better at 98-63) with their performance in the stanindgs.

While the club waved goodbye to starting centerfielder Jim Edmonds and starting second baseman Mark DeRosa in the offseason, the addition of Milton Bradley may make the offense even better than it was last season. The scary thing is that the pitching could be better as well, as the only loss in the rotation (Jason Marquis) was by far their worst starter in 2008. If they can even get a league average performance out of this year's fifth starter (Sean Marshall), the Cubs shouldn't just run away with the NL Central crown, but easily amass the best record in the National League.

Preferred Reading: Bleed Cubbie Blue, View From the Bleachers, & Goat Riders of the Apocalypse

Food for Thought

As they did lead the NL in runs scored (and finished second in MLB) last season, I probably shouldn't mock Lou Pineilla's lineup construction. I have no choice, though. Casting Alfonso Soriano as a leadoff man is absolutely horrible. While most people mention the fact that Soriano simply has too much power to waste in the leadoff spot (the Cubs have more than a handful of guys like that), my problem with Soriano leading off is that he simply doesn't get on base as often as a leadoff man should. Soriano has certainly gotten better at drawing the occasional walk, but he still doesn't do so often enough.

Putting a higher OBP bat like Milton Bradley (even if he doesn't run anymore) would make so much more sense. Bradley probably has less power than Soriano at this point in his career, and the Cubs plan to bat him in the cleanup spot. Bradley did lead the American League in both OBP (.436) and OPS (.999) last season despite the fact that his home run total (22) was far from outrageous, so he's not a horrible fit in the cleanup spot. I just find that with five potentially elite bats in the lineup, you should try and get the guy who gets on base most often in ahead of the rest of them. Bradley will do that.

Lee has been in the three hole for a few years now, but may be the best fit for the two hole in this year's lineup. Why do we put him and his (higher) strikeout totals there in front of Fukudome? We want to get those top five bats as many at bats as possible, and keeping Fukudome high in the order simply doesn't allow them to do that. Lee would bring good power, a high average, and even a pretty good batting eye to the second spot of the order. While moving runners over the old fashioned way isn't his strength, he'll find more ways to do so without creating outs than a guy like Fukudome would.

Lee's replacement in the third spot would be Aramis Ramirez, who is arguably the best hitter on this team right now. Ramirez has hit .289 or better in each of the past five seasons with outstanding power. He's a terrific situational hitter as well, and performs just as well in pressure situations as he does regularly. Generally speaking, while he doesn't necessarily possess the raw power that a Soriano does, Ramirez fits the profile as the bat I'd most like to see at the plate with a runner on base in the Cubs' lineup.

Soriano fits in the cleanup spot as arguably the best pure power hitter in the Cubs' lineup. Soriano has averaged 36 homers in three seasons since joining the National League, and that includes a season in which he lost some time to injury last year. While Soriano is capable of hitting for average, it's not necessarily his strong suit. He'll hit about .275-.280, and we all know that he's still (though, again, he's gotten better) not going to draw many walks. He'll step up with the thought that he's going to drive in whoever has gotten by Ramirez in the three hole and accomplish his goal more often than not.

Soto concludes the part of the lineup that we really want to watch. He had a Brian McCann type of impact with the bat as a rookie. While it would be foolish to bat him low in the order for this reason alone, the fact that there are so many more experienced (and similar) hitters in front of him says that it wouldn't make sense to bat him higher in the order either. He'll bring the necessary power to the last of the true run producing spots in the order, and he'll also get on base enough in front of the bottom of the order to give them opportunities.

We'll take Fukudome's strong on-base skills and decent speed to kick off that bottom of the order. In the sixth spot, it kind of makes sense to have someone who can be a run producer (if necessary) as well as someone who has some speed to get on in front of some singles hitters near the bottom of the order. He fits the profile perfectly, as would Reed Johnson.

You have to love what Fontenot did (.305/.395/.514 with 9 homers in 243 AB) last year, but it also makes sense to keep him lower in the order to start the season. Fontenot has never started regularly, so you have to wonder what's going to happen as he gets a little more exposed to the pitchers around the league. His strength offensively figures to be his average and power, as he's never been real aggressive on the basepaths.

The aggressive guy on the basepaths is Theriot, who has stolen 50 bases (don't get too excited... that's combined) in the past two seasons. Another guy that's shown the ability to hit for a high average (.307 last season) and draw his fair share of walks (73 last season, as he finished with a .387 OBP), Theriot would make sense near the top of the order in most lineups. We'd just like to see Bradley, Lee, Ramirez, Soriano, and Soto get as many shots as possible, so he'll bat low in the order.

Fantasy Factors

We're not going to go to the guy who plays the thinnest position (Soto) or the guy who could go 30/30 (Soriano) in the top spot. Instead, we're going to go with third baseman Aramis Ramirez. Here are Ramirez's average numbers over the past five seasons: .301 Avg., 32 homers, 105 RBI, 87 Runs. While the run total isn't as high as we'd like it to be, much of that has to do with the fact that the lineup has dropped off considerably behind him. That may not be the case this season. Still in his prime (30), Ramirez should be expected to duplicate those numbers once again in 2009. While there's a ton of talent on the Cubs, there's nobody else who is as safe a bet to perform at this level.

Up second, we'll take the feast or famine bat of Alfonso Soriano. The concern with Soriano is that it's always possible he hurts your batting average. The upside is that he did go 40/40 two years ago with the Washington Nationals. While Soriano will hit plenty of dingers, score plenty of runs, and swipe plenty of bags in the leadoff spot, his RBI total will be hindered by that spot in the order once again. If he plays at the level he's capable of, Soriano is the runaway top fantasy bat on the Cubs. You just can't expect that he's going to.

Batting third, we'll go with that positional scarcity and take Geovany Soto. In Soto's first full season, he showed all the tools of an elite catcher. I'm not saying that he showed the potential to become one, but that he was already there. Of course, the one thing that we have to consider in regards to Soto is that he came up in a more traditional way than some of the other young studs at the position (say, Russell Martin, Joe Mauer, and Brian McCann). In other words, Soto didn't play his first full season until he was already 25 (Martin and Mauer are Soto's age... McCann is a year younger. Those three have all been mashing in the bigs for three years or more). Simply put, don't be surprised if Soto's stellar performance last season (.285/23/86) is pretty much his ceiling. That's not to say we shouldn't expect to see comparable numbers for the next 5-7 years, but just that we shouldn't expect to see much improvement. Those are top five catcher numbers regardless.

In the cleanup spot, we'll go with the safer choice of Derrek Lee over the board game. Lee simply hasn't looked the same with his power since that wrist injury in 2006. That's not to say he isn't a fantastic first baseman. You should still expect to see about a .295/25/95 season out of Lee in 2009, which would make him a Top 15 option at fantasy's deepest position. Even in shallow leagues, you're not going to do much better at the utility spot.

As for that board game, Milton Bradley is coming off of far and away his best offensive season.... at the age of 30. Bradley is capable of above average home run power, a ton of doubles, a high walk total, and a strong average. The unfortunate part is that Bradley has shown quite a bit of talent in one non-listed category.... time spent on the disabled list. Bradley's 509 plate appearances in 2008 accounted for his highest total in the category since 2004. Albeit, he provided a full season's worth of stats (.321, 22 homers, 32 doubles, 78 Runs, and 77 RBI) in that span, but the mere thought of what you would have gotten out of him if he'd stayed healthy all season made many owners want to kick themselves. If he can find a way to stay in the lineup nearly as often in 2009, he'll make for a terrific pick around the tenth round.

Batting sixth, we'll take the speed threat Ryan Theriot at shortstop. Theriot showed dramatic improvement with the bat last season, hitting .307 in his second full season while displaying significant growth with his discipline (73 walks in 653 plate appearances). He also notched 20+ steals for the second straight season, though he was caught much more frequently (13 times in 35 attempts) than he had been in 2007. While we should expect a slightly higher RBI total near the bottom of the order than we saw at the top, Theriot doesn't look like he's ever going to develop much (or anything) in the power department. As a starter at shortstop, he's probably limited to deeper or NL-Only Leagues, but he could make for a nice depth/spot starter in head to head mixed leagues.

Behind Theriot, we'll go with his double-play partner, Mike Fontenot. Fontenot showed terrific power for a second baseman with nine homers in limited duty last season. With DeRosa headed to Cleveland, he'll have quite a few more opportunities in 2009. If Fontenot can come anywhere near matching his slugging percentage (.514) from 2008 in more at bats, we could be talking about a second baseman who hits 20 homers. Don't bank on that happening, though. He'll be a solid NL-Only starter capable of 15 bombs, though the average and slugging percentage both figure to come down quite a bit as the league gets a better look at him.

We'd put Kosuke Fukudome up a bit higher on this list, but the fact that he's going to have to platoon with Reed Johnson keeps him below the two middle infielders. While Fukudome didn't quite have the impact that many hoped he would in 2008, it's difficult to complain about what he did do. Fukudome hit .257/.359/.379 in his first big league season with 10 homers and 12 steals. Many expected more power, and it should come a bit (the slugging percentage should at least come up over .400), but it's important to focus on the little things.... like getting on base and working the occasional walk. Fukudome's 81 walks in 589 plate appearances didn't help many fantasy owners last season, but they should show that he's disciplined enough to let the slop go by without wasting an out in the process. He'll show improvement in his second season, but is no more than a fifth outfielder in mixed league formats.

Projected Rotation

Carlos Zambrano
Rich Harden
Ted Lilly
Ryan Dempster
Sean Marshall

Big Z had a bit of a down year in 2008, but we'll forgive him for it. Carlos Zambrano has seen his fantasy stock drop like a rock after going 14-6 with a 3.91 ERA, a 1.29 WHIP, and 130 strikeouts in 188+ innings last season. The concern, of course, is that all those innings have finally caught up with him, leading to a shoulder injury which landed him on the disabled list for the first time in his career. The other concern is that this injury cut into his strikeout rate significantly. Zambrano doesn't enter 2009 as the fantasy ace he was the past few seasons, but one bad season shouldn't knock him out of the Top 30 starters or so. Expect a bit of a bounceback in 2009, as he's shown no ill effects of the shoulder problems that plagued him last season this Spring.

The Cubs' starter who fantasy owners should be concerned about is the oft-injured Rich Harden. Harden had the healthiest season he's had since 2004, making 25 starts between the A's and Cubs. We know what we can usually expect when he's not on the disabled list, and he exceeded even those lofty expectations in 2008. Harden finished with a 2.07 ERA and 1.06 WHIP as he maintained an insane 181:61 strikeout to walk ratio in just 148 innings. Of course, the concern is that we have to wonder how healthy he is (again) right now. Harden has allowed three homers in each of his final two Spring starts. Though he's probably an ace if he's healthy, you're better off letting someone else deal with the headaches that come with being a Harden owner.

Ted Lilly may have been a bit disappointing with his secondary numbers (26 point jump to his ERA, 9 point jump to his WHIP), but there were still plenty of positives to take from his 2008 campaign. Lilly's 17 wins were a new career best, as were his 186 strikeouts. Perhaps more importantly, after failing to hit the 200 inning mark in any of his first seven seasons, Lilly pitched 200+ frames for the second straight season in 2008. Those dropoffs in his peripheral numbers meant we didn't see quite what we expected, but you'd have a difficult time finding too many owners who would complain about his 4.09 ERA or 1.23 WHIP. At this point in his career, Lilly has to be considered a pretty durable number three fantasy starter who brings plenty of strikeouts, solid (if unspectacular) peripheral numbers, and should win plenty of games with the NL's best offense behind him.

Ryan Dempster made me lose a bet during the All-Star game last season. After striking out Ian Kinsler to lead off the ninth, I promised that I'd never use my nickname for him (change the first E to a U) again if he somehow struck out the side. Sadly, he did. Once an elite starting prospect with the Marlins, Dempster always struggled with his control and bounced around between the bullpen and the rotation for a few years in Cincinnati before finally landing as the Cubs' closer for the better part of three years. In a surprising move, the Cubs elected to move him back to the rotation last season, and the results were phenomenal. Dempster maintained an excellent 187:76 strikeout to walk ratio in 206 innings in 2008 en route to a career year with a 17-6 record, a 2.96 ERA, and a 1.21 WHIP. Paying for those numbers in 2009 would probably be a bit foolish, but it's fair to expect that he'll be a decent number two fantasy starter this season.

Sean Marshall has shown plenty of flashes of brilliance as a spot starter/long reliever in the past two seasons, so there's little surprise that he won the fifth starter's job this Spring. Marshall boosted his strikeout production significantly last season, fanning 58 batters in 65 innings (roughly 8 K:9 IP). As you would expect, that also meant he was a little less hittable in general, as he cut the BAA from .267 (2007) to .245 last season, allowing just under a hit per inning. He's sure to have his ups and downs in 2009, but Marshall's performance in the past two years certainly gives us some hope for a sub-4.00 ERA with a WHIP around 1.30 and a solid strikeout rate. That'd be good for a fourth starter in leagues of any size or format.

Bullpen

Closer: Kevin Gregg
Setup: Carlos Marmol
Other Arms of Interest: Jeff Samardzija (Minors), Aaron Heilman, Chad Gaudin

In one of the more interesting position battles this Spring, Kevin Gregg ended up winning the duel for the closer's role. Though he tends to keep a high walk rate (read: high WHIP), Gregg has been a decent closer in Florida the past two seasons. He's kept an ERA right around 3.50 two years running, while striking out just under a batter an inning over that time frame (145 in 152 IP). It's worth noting that Gregg didn't have nearly the conversion rate that he did in 2007, blowing 9 of his 38 chances. Gregg enters the season as the closer in Chicago, but Marmol should probably still be drafted higher.

It's possible that Carlos Marmol's decision to pitch for his country had a bit of an effect on his efforts to win the job this Spring. The simple fact of the matter is that Gregg outpitched him when they were both in camp, though. There's simply no comparison between what Gregg has done and Marmol has done in the past two seasons. Marmol was considerably better. Last season, Marmol allowed less than a hit for every two innings that he pitched, maintaining a ridiculous .135 BAA in 87+ innings. As you can probably imagine, this means his strikeout rate is equally incredible (try over 12 K:9 in 156 innings the past two years). He does tend to lose the zone at times, which is the only real concern. You can bet that Lou Pineilla used some of the same reasoning that he used last season to keep Marmol out of the ninth. It was well publicized that Pineilla had said he'd rather have Marmol for key situations throughout the game last season instead of limiting his action to the ninth inning. Marmol will have the job by the All-Star Break unless Gregg has an incredible first half. While the fact that he won't start the year as the closer drops him well behind the top tier closers, there's every reason to believe you'll get as much value out of Marmol in a setup role as you would a second tier closer.... even if he doesn't end up taking the job over some time this season.

Jeff Samardzija was terrific out of the bullpen last season, but lost the battle for the fifth starter's job this Spring. While he's in AAA and the club has a couple of other starting candidates in Aaron Heilman and Chad Gaudin, you have to think that Samardzija is the first man in if something happens to one of the starters (see: Harden, Rich). Brady Quinn's old favorite target at Notre Dame has big strikeout potential and a future as a top three starter. It's just a question of how quickly he realizes it. Heilman and Gaudin are simply fillers at this point in their careers, but would be capable of netting plenty of wins if they were moved to the rotation at some point this season.

On the Whole

The fact that Pineilla has seemingly mismanaged his lineup the past two seasons on the way to consecutive division titles (and the best record in the NL a year ago) should tell you all you need to know... particularly considering they added a bat like Bradley's this offseason. With all due respect to the Los Angeles Dodgers, this is clearly the most dominant lineup in the National League, and they'll show it again. Given good health and a fair job achieving expected performances from the offense, the Cubs could well score 900 runs this summer. The pitching doesn't look quite as dominant, particularly with the constant concern around Rich Harden and Carlos Zambrano. While Zambrano's shoulder injury means that the Cubs lack a truly dominant starter, there are few teams that can match their depth (when healthy) one through five in the rotation. Expect this rotation to be one of the top ten in the majors again this season, while the bullpen has some depth and one of the more dominant young arms in baseball in Marmol. It would be a disappointment if the Cubs don't break the century mark this season, and they're the clear favorites to win the NL Pennant.

Over/Under: 102 Wins

Can the Chicago Cubs achieve a +5 win differential and win 102 games or more in 2009? Why or why not?

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