Nats Sign E-Jax. Rizzo Finally Gets His Man
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If you’ve been a Montreal Expos/Washington Nationals fan – yeah… I stuck with them when they moved – you’ve learned to find things other than dreaming of October celeberations to keep you occupied in recent years. Things like the release of the Baseball America Prospect Handbook – Top organization this year! (Though the rankings were determined before the Gio Gonzalez trade) Things like the draft, where they’ve nabbed arguably the best player three years running. Things like the trade deadline…..
The 2010 trade deadline was a particularly interesting one for the Nats. GM Mike Rizzo pulled off what may end up being one of the best deals in the history of the franchise, trading closer Matt Capps to the Twins for a young catcher by the name of Wilson Ramos (and lefty reliever Joe Testa). Still, it was the move that Rizzo didn’t make that may have defined the deadline (in my eyes, as a failure).
Rizzo held all of the cards with Adam Dunn at the deadline. He had a player that was highly coveted on the open market. He had enough leverage to maximize his trade value because Dunn continually said that he wanted to sign long term in D.C. He had drafted two prospects who many call “generational” players with the top pick in the draft in the previous two seasons, but the team was showing enough improvement so that he could target either high end prospects or players that could contribute a little more quickly. If the Nats were unable to re-sign Dunn (they didn’t), they would likely net two draft picks (they did…. using them on Alex Meyer and Brian Goodwin) when he signed elsewhere.
As the deadline approached, the team that came up most frequently in trade rumors was the Chicago White Sox (who signed Dunn that offseason). Chicago’s farm system was pretty thin, but they did have a nice little right-handed starter coming up the pipeline (maybe you’ve heard of him… Daniel Hudson) and a handful of fringy bats such as Tyler Flowers (iffy defense), Dayan Viciedo (iffy defense), and Brent Morel (iffy bat). Most of the rumors with Chicago swirled around Hudson and one of the bats. In hindsight…. err…. well, let’s just see what I said over at Federal Baseball back on August 5, 2010.
The argument could certainly be made that considering salary, club control, and upside, Daniel Hudson (who the White Sox were rumored to be dangling along with an offensive prospect and later traded with another one of their top ten prospects [albeit, a weak farm system] in Holmberg for Jackson…. presumably under the assumption that Jackson would make the Nats more likely to move Dunn) was a far better fit than Edwin Jackson would ever have been. Is he better than Jackson right now from a performance standpoint? Probably not, but they’ll be awfully close the rest of this season.
It’s clear that Rizzo must not have gotten an offer that was a better package than what the White Sox had offered. Still, while the speculated White Sox offers weren’t exactly spectacular, they were offering the Nationals two “good” players, one with the potential to have about as much value in the next few years as Dunn (Hudson’s presumed impact on the rotation), and the fact that the Diamondbacks went out and spent with Hudson and another decent (C+) level prospect to get Jackson to flip to the Nats in a presumed package means that they probably could have gotten a third player who could have been valuable down the road (maybe Holmberg?) for two months worth of Adam Dunn.
My opinion about Daniel Hudson is probably higher than many of you, and it’s obviously higher than Mike Rizzo’s.
While I made no mention of Hudson specifically in the article, that’s way down in the comments section. You see, Rizzo waffled in the media about how serious they were about keeping Dunn (posturing, surely). However, while loading up on some big league ready prospects – and the years of club control that comes with them – seemed to make sense for a team that had won a combined 118 games in 2008 and 2009, the reports leaking in the media were to the contrary. There were some minor rumblings that the Nationals were trying to acquire Roy Oswalt before the Phillies dealt for him. That’s when all of the Edwin Jackson (and Carlos Quentin… and Gordon Beckham) talk started. As a fan of the team, I had two thoughts regarding the Nats attempting to acquire Jackson:
- There’s still a fair amount of upside there. Jackson’s stuff is off the charts, but he’s always had control problems. His walk rate is high, which is part of that problem. I worried a bit about his command because he usually carried a high HR rate as well.. Still, he was young enough and talented enough so that a change of scenery (he’s had plenty of them) could help.
- When the Nats seem to be at least 2-3 years away from contention, why on earth would they be pushing for players who are likely to hit free agency in 2-3 years?
Needless to say, option two trumped option one by a significant margin for me. The White Sox were interested and reportedly willing to offer Hudson and at least one of the offensive prospects. Instead, after two weeks of hearing the constant rumors, they went ahead and dealt Hudson and a fringy pitching prospect (David Holmberg, mentioned in the quote above) to the Diamondbacks to acquire Jackson. I wish the rumors would have stopped after that, but they still went on until the deadline. Everyone kept speculating that the White Sox went out and got the guy that Rizzo wanted to flip Dunn for, but a deal was never struck.
While many seemed surprised that the Nationals were the team that signed Jackson, this was one of the easier things for me to assume was going to happen this offseason. The 2010 trade deadline was when I determined that Mike Rizzo had a bit of an unhealthy obsession with Edwin Jackson. A year and a half later, Rizzo got his golden goose by signing Jackson to a one year deal.
What Does This Mean For the Nationals Rotation?
The rumors of the Nationals “aggressively pursuing” trading John Lannan started shortly before the signing was announced. Lannan’s arbitration hearing was Wednesday, and the decision to award him $5 million (the Nationals won the hearing) was announced just over an hour before the reports about Jackson started flying around. With Jackson now on board, the current “candidates” for the rotation include the following:
| Name | IP | Wins | Losses | ERA | FIP | WHIP | K/9 | BB/9 |
| Stephen Strasburg | 24.0 | 1 | 1 | 1.50 | 1.28 | 0.71 | 9.00 | 0.75 |
| Jordan Zimmermann | 161.1 | 8 | 11 | 3.18 | 3.16 | 1.15 | 6.92 | 1.73 |
| Gio Gonzalez | 202.0 | 16 | 12 | 3.12 | 3.64 | 1.32 | 8.78 | 4.05 |
| Edwin Jackson | 199.2 | 12 | 9 | 3.79 | 3.55 | 1.44 | 6.67 | 2.79 |
| John Lannan | 184.2 | 10 | 13 | 3.70 | 4.28 | 1.46 | 5.17 | 3.70 |
| Chien-Ming Wang | 62.1 | 4 | 3 | 4.04 | 4.57 | 1.28 | 3.61 | 1.88 |
| Ross Detwiler | 66.0 | 4 | 5 | 3.00 | 4.21 | 1.26 | 5.59 | 2.73 |
It’s true that Strasburg is expected to be limited to 160 innings or so this season. It’s also true that we don’t know how much they can depend upon Chien-Ming Wang – he improved down the stretch as he finally returned from injury last year – or Ross Detwiler – their 2007 first round pick hasn’t developed as quickly as they would have hoped. Still, we can be certain that Strasburg (up until the innings cap), Zimmermann, Gio, and Jackson are all going to take regular turns in the rotation. That leaves three guys – all capable big league starters – fighting for the fifth spot in the rotation. While there’s a saying that there’s no such thing as too much pitching, the belief that the Nationals are in the market to move a starter holds water.
Why is Lannan the most logical candidate to be traded? He’s making more than either Wang ($4 million) or Detwiler (yet to hit arbitration). While Detwiler might figure to have a bit more trade value because of how little service time he’s accrued, he isn’t nearly as proven as Lannan is at the big league level. Wang doesn’t figure to have a lot of value as a trade chip at this point in time. He’s only made 11 starts since 2009 and needs to prove that he can stay healthy. Lannan, who is affordable ($5 million) and doesn’t hit free agency until after the 2013 season, is a moderately attractive option to just about any team. He won’t net the Nationals a king’s ransom or anything, but he should net them either a decent prospect or two or a stopgap option to fill their CF void for the 2012 campaign.
How Does This Affect Jackson’s Fantasy Value for 2012?
Offensive Support
In terms of run support, Jackson could have found better landing spots. The Nationals’ offense finished 12th in the NL and 24th in the majors in Runs Scored last season. With a lot of young position players in the starting lineup – Danny Espinosa and Wilson Ramos are entering their second full seasons… Ian Desmond his third – those fortunes figure to turn around a little. If the two players that were expected to be their offensive core can bounce back after either missing a lot of time – Ryan Zimmerman played in just 101 games – or having the worst offensive season of their career – I’m looking at you big money Jayson Werth – the Nats could be a league average offensive squad.
However, they have potential black holes in the lineup at 1b/LF, CF, and (depending upon how you feel about Desmond) SS. Michael Morse will adequately cover one of the first two (LF to start) while Adam Laroche has a lot to prove at 1b. Desmond has been disappointing both at the plate and with the glove in his first two full seasons. They really don’t have much of anything in CF, and they lack a true leadoff hitter. I wonder what it is that Mike Rizzo will be trying to target if he does deal Lannan….
Defensive Support
Depending upon how the CF situation plays out, Jackson could have a better defense behind him in D.C. than he’s ever had. While Desmond is a bit shaky with the glove at SS, Espinosa and Laroche are both plus options with the glove on the right side. Zimmerman struggled a bit with the glove (particularly his throwing motion) when he returned from injury, but he’s been one of the poster boys for UZR over at 3b with a 10.6 UZR/150 for his career. While Morse is poor defensively no matter where he plays on the field, he’s adequate hidden in LF. Werth is an above average defensive RF, though a move to CF would nullify that value. The missing piece of the puzzle is in CF. On the positive side, Jackson (career 1.19 GB/FB rate… 1.55 and 1.40 the past two seasons) should make good use of the strong defensive infield behind him.
Park Factors
If you want to see a ballgame in the most neutral park in the majors, Nats Park may be the place for you! Per Baseball Reference, Nationals Park played at 100/100 last year and 100/101 (hitting, then pitching) over their multi-year study. 100 is neutral. Jackson actually pitched in both a power-hitter’s paradise (U.S. Cellular Field) and a neutral pitcher’s park (Busch Stadium III) last season, so he’s shown an ability to adapt. Don’t expect Nationals Park to have any effect on him whatsoever.
Bullpen Support
With Brad Lidge on board after signing a one year, $1 million deal last week, the Nationals could have one of the more dominant bullpens in baseball. Lidge’s addition gives the Nationals a potentially dominant trio (Lidge, Sean Burnett, and Tyler Clippard) to bridge the gap to closer Drew Storen. If Jackson leaves with the lead, he should end up notching a win more often than not.
An Aside… My Feelings
In a sense, I’m happy for Mike Rizzo. I got the feeling that Edwin Jackson became his white whale at the 2010 trade deadline, and I’m happy to see him avoid Ahab’s fate. While it’s an expensive one year deal, it’s still just that… a one year deal. Signing Jackson won’t hamstring the Nats for years like signing… ohh… Prince Fielder (err… or Jayson Werth) might have done. While the primary need(s) I saw entering the offseason were on the other side of the ball, the Nationals have made two solid upgrades in the middle to back of the rotation. With Strasburg, Zimmermann, Gio, and Jackson, they’ll have one of the better rotations in baseball… even if it still doesn’t hold a candle to the team they’ll be chasing in the NL East. Now, if they can just find a way to score……….
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