Category Watch: Strikeouts

Analyzing the cheaper sources

We're not just here to show you a whole bunch of data that you can find at a dozen sites that have statistics. We're here to break it down for you a little bit. In doing so, we're going to go come up with a few different groups of pitchers based on their perceived overall fantasy status. We will ignore the aces, as these are the pitchers you'll be thinking about anyway. However, I can't urge strongly enough that you try to pinpoint one of the nine aces who accumulated 200+ strikeouts last season.

In order to come up with groupings on how we'll separate our starters, we'll be using the player's average draft positions based on a couple of different sites with leagues. Any player who is going (on average) from rounds 8-11 will be considered a Number Two starter. Players going from rounds 12-15 will be Number Three starters. Players going from rounds 16-20 will be Number Fours. Finally, players going beyond the 20th round will be a Number Five.

Number Two Starters/Semi-Cheap: Mike Mussina, Barry Zito, A.J. Burnett, Javier Vazquez, Matt Clement, Chris Carpenter, Kelvim Escobar

After what many considered a horrible year by his standards in 2004, Mike Mussina has slipped on a lot of draft boards, but shouldn't be done at 36. Moosie has fanned an average of about 185 hitters a year since 1998, so it should be a safe bet that he'll return to form. With the Yankee offense at his back, he won't come nearly as cheap as some of the pitchers we'll be discussing today.

Barry Zito has declined in consecutive seasons, and part of the reason for this is that his monster hook just isn't as effective against the league anymore. While there are certainly problems with this (it is his out pitch), he did find a way to improve upon his horrific 2002 strikeout numbers (5.14/9 IP) and bring them closer to his career average (7.10/9 IP... 6.89 last year). Assuming that he's started to adjust to the fact that hitters have caught onto him, look for him to bump his strikeout totals back up to the 170's.

A.J. Burnett certainly isn't being completely overlooked after missing most of the first half last season coming off of Tommy John surgery. However, he's certainly slipping a bit further than he would if he was coming off of a full healthy season. Burnett once again showed his mastery of opposing hitters last season, finishing with over eight strikeouts per nine innings for the third consecutive season (didn't show on our 2003/2004 lists because he didn't qualify for the innings title). Considering that he's a horse on the hill when he's healthy and should throw about 230 innings, he should top the 200 strikeout mark in 2005 and could push you over the top.

Javier Vazquez' meteoric second-half collapse will scare off some owners, but you shouldn't be one of them. Vazquez' 6.82 K/9 IP and 150 strikeouts were the worst numbers he's produced since his first full season in 1999. Now that he's escaped the high-powered AL East, Vazquez should be ready to turn the jets back on and blow the National League away like he did when he was in Montreal. Vazquez is still just hitting his prime, and (like Burnett) is a good bet to surpass the 200 strikeout mark this season. Come next year, you won't be able to get him after the fourth or fifth round, so take advantage of his dip while you can.

Unlike most (well... any) of the hurlers on this list so far, Clement is coming off of the second best year of his career. Clement's overall numbers certainly didn't touch his 2002 campaign (215 K, 3.60 ERA, 12 wins), but they were far above his career averages. Now with a new fat contract lined up, his primary asset to fantasy teams may be the wins that he racks up in Boston rather than his terrific strikeout numbers of the past few seasons. For the second time in three years last season, Clement produced over a strikeout an inning. The bad news? Ask Curt Schilling and Javier Vazquez, who each saw their strikeouts per nine innings dip by over two when they switched leagues and entered the AL East last year.

Like Clement, Carpenter is coming off of a career year, though his departure from the AL East may have had something to do with it. Carpenter, formerly the Blue Jays' top prospect, never quite lived up to the hype in Toronto and finally produced when he caught a break and tried a change of scenery. Now with a full healthy (well... almost) season behind him after Tommy John surgery two years ago, Carp should be able to continue striking out the 7+ per nine innings that he did again last season... and should throw more innings.

Last year, Kelvim Escobar was one of my big sleepers in this category when we did Category Watch. This year, he's jumped up from everyone's favorite Number Five starter to everyone's favorite Number Three starter. While he's borderline as a Number Two, part of that was simply because of the horrific run support (in comparison with some other Angels starters) that the Halos provided him with. That should turn around a bit this season, and the former closer's awesome strikeout rate (8.25/9 IP) was no fluke... it fits right in with his career numbers.

Number Threes: Freddy Garcia, C.C. Sabathia, Jeremy Bonderman, Livan Hernandez, Bartolo Colon, Brandon Webb, Dontrelle Willis

Garcia is a bit risky. You don't know whether the Freddy that dominated as a strikeout pitcher after his trade to the White Sox (8.91/9 IP) or the Freddy that was a better all-around pitcher for the Mariners (6.90/9 IP) is going to show up. His strikeout totals have been erratic throughout his career, ranging from under 6/9 IP to almost a strikeout an inning after the trade last season. Regardless, he's a virtual lock for 150 strikeouts and could post close to 200 if he pitches anything like the way he did in Chicago last year.

Like Garcia (and someone else in this group), Sabathia tends to get his above average strikeout totals largely because he throws a ton of innings. This may prove a bit costly this season as he should miss most (if not all) of April. Though C.C.'s arguably the most imposing figure you can see on the hill when you consider his girth (6'7 and a listed 290), he's never really developed into the strikeout pitcher that many of us were salivating over when we heard he was going to start the 2001 season on the big league roster at the age of 20. That said, he should throw 200+ innings even without April, and should continue to sprinkle in his 160 strikeouts or so.

As Livan Hernandez is always amongst the league leaders in innings pitched, he'll always be amongst the leaders in strikeouts. Hernandez doesn't throw smoke by any means (see fastball in the mid-eighties), but is a complete bulldog on the hill who has thrown a massive seventeen complete games in the past two years. On average, he'll give you anywhere from 5.5-7 strikeouts per nine innings. When you rack up about 250 innings, though, that adds up.

Bartolo Colon completes our brief list of veteran starters who rack up the Ks because they throw a ton of innings. Though Colon throws in the mid-to-high nineties, he simply doesn't have enough movement on his pitches to fool hitters into a ton of strikeouts per inning. Colon has posted just three seasons with a K/9 IP ratio of over 7.0, so you'd better hope that he gives you some volume because of his innings pitched.

Taking a break from all the inning-eating vets, let's move on to the breakout player of the set. Jeremy Bonderman can only be considered a high-risk/high-reward player entering the 2005 season, but even if he doesn't pan out and duplicate those terrific second-half numbers that he had in 2004, he should be a threat for the 200 strikeout barrier. Bonderman showed a dramatic improvement in his strikeouts per nine innings pitched over his rookie year, watching it rise from 6.00 to 8.22. While that figure shouldn't necessarily be expected to rise much more, there's certainly a chance. He's grown more accustomed to throwing in the big leagues, and should be ready to bust out with an improved team around him.

I admit it. I was wrong. Brandon Webb was my whipping boy throughout the entire 2004 preseason, and I kept on warning all of you to avoid him at all costs. While I was right on one thing (a Kaz Ishii-like walk rate), Webb's solid season in obscurity last year has convinced me that he's the real deal. Despite the aforementioned terrible walk rate and horrid run support and defensive support, Webb put together a 3.59 ERA that was well above the league average. How did he do this? He fanned 7.1 batters per 9 innings and held the opposition to a .248 average. With a better team behind him, expect Webb's fortunes to improve as he gets back on track.... and maybe he won't worry so much about being perfect and walking too many hitters.

The D-Train took a big step back with his strikeout production in 2004, fanning less hitters in 197 innings than he did in 160 innings in his rookie year. What happened here is that the league started to adjust to his funky delivery and was able to tee off on him a bit more. Have no fear, though. Dontrelle should be able to make some adjustments of his own this season. Don't expect the gaudy (7.95 K/9 IP) numbers he put up in his rookie year, but expect him to crank it back up to around 7.5/9 IP. His overall numbers should reflect his improvement as well.

Number Fours: Russ Ortiz, Kevin Brown, Joel Pineiro, Scott Kazmir, Wade Miller

Oddly enough, none of these pitchers are coming off of banner years, but all fared pretty well with the strikeouts. Ortiz may be the one pitcher (wait... maybe Eric Milton) who will make me consider dealing away my biggest superstar for nothing just so that I can get another owner to get him the heck off of my team. That, however, may just be personal preference speaking. To me, he's an overrated hack. To the rest of you out in fantasy-land, Ortiz is the guy who has won fourteen or more games in each of the past six years despite his absolutely terrible WHIP. Regardless, while Ortiz will walk nearly 75% as many batters as he will strike out, good old Russ does possess an average of 6.74 K/9 IP, and he's bound to give you innings. Unfortunately, they're Dave Burba-esque. As a side note, with both Ortiz and Webb in their rotation, the Diamondbacks may be trying to get themselves into the record books for walks allowed by a team in a single season.

Love him or hate him, Kevin Brown remains more than capable of carrying a fantasy rotation if he doesn't feel like breaking his hand on the clubhouse wall.... or throwing his back out wrestling with his son..... or (insert bizarre self-inflicted injury here) whatever. The good news about Brown (aside from the fact that he should start the season healthy, which should last about eight minutes or so) is that he's posted a K/9 IP of 7.5 or better in seven of the past eight seasons. The bad news? The year that he didn't was last year, when he posted just 5.66 K/9 IP. In fact, Brown has never fanned more than 6.51 K/9 IP as a member of an AL club, and seemingly feasted on the lesser hitting when he was in the National League. That said, he's a gamble that's worth taking.

Joel Pineiro was on pace to make our list of the top 35 K/9 IP starters from 2004, but fell a few innings short of qualifying for the ERA title. In 2002 and 2003, he finished 36th both times, so he barely misses the list. Pineiro's strikeout figures certainly won't blow you away, but the 150 or so that he should tally year in-year out for the remainder of his career is about as good as you're likely to find once it gets to this point of your draft.

Wade Miller is still expected to start the season in extended spring training, but don't let that scare you away. Miller has garnered plenty of respect from fantasy owners in the past for his nice win totals and solid ERA and WHIP numbers, but he never gets quite the kudos he deserves for being a solid strikeout pitcher as well. Miller has fanned an average of 7.72 batters per 9 innings throughout his career, including 7.5 or better in every year since his rookie season. Unlike some of the pitchers listed as Number Three starters (and.... errrrr... Russ Ortiz), we wish that he'd be able to stay healthier and throw more innings, as he doesn't hurt you and could have 200 strikeout potential if he was capable of throwing 220 innings.

Scott Kazmir should really be listed as a Number Five starter, but he's being drafted in most leagues like a Number Four. Kazmir, who most compare to Billy Wagner, fanned an amazing 11.07 batters per nine innings in his seven start trial run with the Devil Rays last season. While he should certainly take his lumps quite a bit this season, Kazmir has 200 strikeouts at some point in the next two years written all over him. Think about 175 this year and hope that his secondary stats don't kill you.

Number Fives: Randy Wolf, Kevin Millwood, Jose Contreras, Eric Milton, Cliff Lee, Adam Eaton

I admit it. Seeing Wolf slip this far in most drafts is just plain killing me. The guy was a proven stud after 2002 who was entering the prime of his career. He'd been amongst the best second half pitchers in the league for two years running, and came out of the gate extremely hot in 2003, making the All-Star team. Then he just plain collapsed for a year and a half. Wolf's strikeout numbers took a severe hit last year (partially due to an injury that cost him a couple of months), but should be ready to re-find the dominance that he had way back when in the next year. He'll be considered an upper tier #3 starter for next year's draft, and is the Phillies real ace.

Cliff Lee is another player who fell apart in the second half last season, though it was his first full season in the big leagues. He posted a phenomenal 8.09 K/9 IP ratio and should improve his command and stamina in his second season in the bigs. Lee was terrific until the temperature started to rise in June, but finished with an ERA of 5.90 in June and an ERA over 7 in every month from there on out. Expect him to correct his stamina issue and improve drastically in his second full season.

I hate saying this (and not just because he lost the coin toss when I was deciding between him and Orlando Hernandez in my sixteen team keeper last night), but Jose Contreras could be poised to finally bust out of the shackles this year in Chicago. He pitched a little better in Chi-town right after the trade, and a full season away from The Boss should only help him to realize just how great he can be in this league... even if he is sixty years old. Though he's bound to walk a few dozen too many batters again this season, Contreras can always at least be counted on to post eight strikeouts per nine innings.

Eric Milton will get killed in Cincinnati slightly more than he got killed in Philadelphia. He'll keep a solid WHIP and post his typical 6.5 batters per nine innings, but it's up to you to decide whether that's worth giving up 45 homers and taking on his 4.8 ERA.

I've heard way too many people say that Kevin Millwood solidifies the Indians' staff because they added an ace on the cheap. Millwood has posted exactly two good seasons, and neither of them have been in the last two years. That said, the most positive thing you can say about Millwood is that he'll give you seven strikeouts per nine innings.... then again, with the track record I'm seeing between NL pitchers going to the AL, that might not be the case this year.

Adam Eaton may be worse than every pitcher on here. Why? He teases you with his talent. Eaton is arguably as good with his skill set as any of the pitchers listed as the Number Two starters, but he's simply the least consistent starter in the league. He will strike out seven every nine innings, he will tantalize you every time he faces the Dodgers, and he will follow that amazing start against L.A. up with three god-awful starts to make up for it. If he could ever get his head in order, Eaton could be one of the top twenty-five starters in the league. However, that will never happen. Count on him for 160 strikeouts and hope he finally gets his act together.

Untested

Dan Meyer is apparently still in the driver's seat for the Number Five spot in Oakland's rotation, and posted huge strikeout numbers (10.4/9 IP) in the minors with the Braves organization last season. Those numbers should certainly tail off a bit in the big leagues at first, but he's a starter that could help carry the category for years.

Gavin Floyd won't completely blow you away with his strikeout numbers, but should post in the 7 or 8 K/9 IP range that he did in his trial run last year. With Vicente Padilla expected to start the season on the disabled list, Floyd should have his big shot and will take advantage of the opportunity.

Jose Capellan is currently slated to start the season in the bullpen, but could eventually see himself moved into a starting role (or possibly the closer's role if Mike Adams struggles) at some point this season. Capellan probably throws harder than any young pitcher in the bigs, and has been known to occasionally pop 100 on the gun. It may not be right away, but he'll develop into a strong strikeout pitcher.

Jeff Francis posted an 11.45 K/9 IP ratio in the minors in the Rockies' system last season and will definitely break camp in the rotation. The key word in the above sentence is Rockies, but he could make for some nice starts on the road.

I'll try to post another Category Watch on Sunday evening after the FSIC AL-Only draft.