Rockies Preview: Time to Rebuild?

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Colorado Rockies
3/10 Kansas City Royals
3/11 Oakland A's
3/12 Texas Rangers
3/13 Cleveland Indians
3/17 Arizona Diamondbacks
3/19 Los Angeles Dodgers

In 2008, the Rockies learned that baseball can be a fickle game. Just one year removed from a surprise run to the NL Pennant, the Colorado Rockies found that life as a target on your back can be incredibly difficult. Both the pitching staff (4.77 ERA after a 4.32 ERA in 2007) and the offense (747 runs after 860 in 2007) took major steps back as the Rockies finished 74-88, sixteen wins shy of their 2007 output.

While their run in 2007 included a solid month where they played completely out of their minds (i.e., a bit of a regression to the mean was expected), nobody could have predicted that a relatively young team like Colorado would perform that poorly. Unfortunately, the offseason knee-jerk reaction to trade 2007 MVP candidate Matt Holliday and the fact that young ace Jeff Francis will miss the 2009 season don't exactly lead us to believe that there are brighter days in their immediate future.

Preferred Reading: Purple Row

Food for Thought

Long term, I'm not a huge fan of batting Ryan Spilborghs in the leadoff spot. For this year, they don't really have anyone better for the role. He did have an OBP (.407) that's ideal for the spot last season, and he's certainly not afraid to work the count and draw a walk. The biggest concern is that, at 29, he's never really been a big league regular. He hasn't locked up the centerfield job yet, but the expectation is that he'll either win the job over Carlos Gonzalez there or shift over to left field and push Seth Smith into the fourth outfielder's role. Top prospect Dexter Fowler will also push for the job.

We've known it and seen it for quite a while. Todd Helton simply isn't anywhere near the hitter in terms of power that he used to be. What he has become is a strong average-hitting option with 15-20 homer power, exceptional plate discipline, and a high contact rate. There's no way the Rockies would even consider this, but moving Helton out of that key run production spot and into a role as a second leadoff man without speed could seriously boost the opportunities that Garrett Atkins and Brad Hawpe (two guys who are significantly better power hitters at this point in their careers) have to drive in runs.

Brad Hawpe doesn't fit my usual profile for a number three hitter, as he's certainly not the best hitter on the team. However, he is on par with Garrett Atkins (and better than Tulowitzki) in the average department. While he doesn't have the power of Atkins, he has plenty to handle the third spot in the order and allow Atkins to stay in that coveted cleanup spot.

Two years ago when we ran the rankings, Garrett Atkins actually finished second among third basemen. He's not there anymore, but he's still in his prime. He can flat mash, particularly at Coors Field.

For a couple of different reasons, I simply don't see Tulo sticking in the number two spot. First off, his contact rate just isn't where you'd like it to be. He's struck out once every 5.30 at bats early on in his career, figures that you don't want from a lineup spot that's geared towards contact hitting. More importantly, Tulowitzki projects as someone that the Rockies want to move to the middle of the order at some point in the near future. He has great power for a shortstop, and should eventually slide into the three hole. For now, he's simply not looking quite polished enough to bat in the third spot. The fifth spot would offer him a run-producing spot in the order and let him develop on the job a little better than the second spot in the order would.

After a disappointing rookie season in 2006, Iannetta busted out last season, batting .264/.390/.505 with 18 homers. In a weaker lineup, he'd be batting in a slightly better run-producing spot. While the Rockies' lineup isn't as overpowering as we've seen in past years, Atkins, Helton, Hawpe, and Tulowitzki all figure to be better middle of the order hitters in 2009. Bat him sixth, where he'll still see plenty of chances. Bury the rest of the guys.

The last two spots figure to be largely determined by position battles going on this Spring. Seth Smith has been labeled the favorite to start in left, while Colorado has said they'd like to give Carlos Gonzalez a chance to build his confidence in AAA after a rough rookie campaign in Oakland. It would certainly make sense, but the Rockies are probably going to have to choose between Gonzalez and Dexter Fowler for their fourth outfielder's spot if Smith does indeed win the job. They don't appear to have the veteran options they've had in the past... something that tends to happen when you deal two of your starting outfielders in the offseason.

After a couple of awful years following his breakout 2005 campaign, Clint Barmes showed that he wasn't a total fluke, and even moved across the middle infield to second base. Barmes hit a solid .290 (though he rarely draws walks, and finished with just a .322 OBP) and managed double digit homers and steals in just 107 games. The concern here is that former top prospect Ian Stewart also enjoyed his first real success at the big league level, and Stewart doesn't look like he's going to break into the lineup anywhere else. More than anything, Barmes' value as a utility man (he played 13 or more games at second, third, and shortstop in 2008) makes him more valuable in that role. Stewart is a lot more limited defensively, and Colorado is going to want to get his bat in the lineup as much as possible. A natural third baseman, he's blocked by the team's best current bat (Garrett Atkins).

Fantasy Factors

We'll start with Garrett Atkins, and this may show where we're going with the 2009 Rockies. Atkins appears to be in a serious downward spiral, as he's watched his numbers drop across the board in each of the past two seasons. Flat in the middle of his prime, we have to think that last season's .286/.328/.452 effort has to be the floor of his value. His slugging was down 100 points from two years ago, while the biggest issue may be his lack of patience. What we've seen in the past from him and the fact that he's still just 29 tell us that a rebound is possible in 2009.... he'll probably never again have a season like 2006, but if he can turn things around enough to equal his 2007 production (.301/.367/.486 with 25 HR and 111 RBI), he'll be a worthwhile second tier third starter at third.

From last year's bust to last year's breakout. We'll go with Chris Iannetta in the two hole, in part because he plays at a position that's still pretty thin. Iannetta showed dramatic improvement across the board last season, mashing 18 homers (in just 333 AB) while bumping his average from .218 to .262. A bit extreme on the plate discipline side, Iannetta is about as "three true outcomes" as it gets for a catcher. He deserves a bigtime boost in OBP leagues (.390 last year despite his average) and he'll hurt you a bit if your league carries penalties for strikeouts. A legit top ten catcher going forward, Iannetta could hit 25 homers given 500 at bats.

Batting third, we'll go with the (new) face of the franchise, Troy Tulowitzki. Tulo's injury problems in the first half cost him a big showing in 2008, but he looked just fine (.327/.389/.469 with 5 HR) when he was healthy after the break. There was nowhere to go but down after he was a huge part of their pennant winning squad in 2007. Expect him to be healthier this season and start on the career path that was expected of him. A .280 batting average with 20+ homers, 80+ runs, and 80+ RBI could well be in the cards in 2009.

Batting cleanup, we'll go with Brad Hawpe. Another terrific plate discipline option, Hawpe plays a bit stronger in OBP leagues than leagues that value batting average. Hawpe has averaged 77 walks over the past three seasons, and has a lifetime .375 OBP as opposed to a .282 lifetime average. Yes.... he has some power, too. Hawpe has averaged 25 homers and 95 RBI over the past three seasons.

In the five hole, we'll go with the (old) face of the franchise, Todd Helton. Helton may not bring the power like he used to, but he remains an elite average hitter with just enough pop to play at first in standard leagues. A .328 lifetime hitter with outstanding plate discipline as well, a healthy Helton is a near lock to bat .310+ with 35+ doubles, 15+ homers, and 85+ RBI. While he's far from the elite at this stage of his career, Helton remains a solid play at either first base (in deep leagues), a corner infield spot, or the utility spot.

As Clint Barmes remains the favorite to win that second base job, we'll run him out there next. Barmes showed significant growth last season, batting .290 with 11 HR and 13 SB in 393 at bats. He'll have eligibility at both second and shortstop in any league, and may have third base eligibility depending upon your league's format. Given 550 at bats, Barmes could give you a 15/15 season from the second base spot. Be wary, though. A slow start could easily land him on the bench behind Ian Stewart or Jeff Baker.

Ryan Spilborghs is a serious candidate to be exposed this season as he'll see a lot more at bats than he has in the past. However, the fact that he's the expected leadoff man in front of (in some form) Tulowitzki, Helton, Atkins, and Hawpe means that he's going to have a lot of chances to score if he gets on base. Spilborghs is capable of hitting double digits in the stolen base and home run categories, but the fact that he should score close to 100 runs will be his primary asset. He's a solid third outfielder in NL-Only Leagues.

Ian Stewart could still realize that 30 homer potential (really doubtful this year) that everyone once saw in him, but he's going to have to fight for at bats. As he'll turn 24 in early April, you would like to think that the Rockies would speed up his development and get him in the order more regularly. Even as a backup, Stewart figures to find 300 at bats in Colorado this season, and that could make him a nice infield option in NL-Only and deep mixed leagues.

Seth Smith has proven to be a strong average-hitter with double/double potential in the minors. There's little reason to think that the 25-year-old outfielder couldn't hit .280 and threaten double digits in both homers and steals if he earns the lion's share of the at bats in left.... Dexter Fowler looks like he could still use some time to develop his power a bit, but could eventually turn into a 20/20 outfielder.... Carlos Gonzalez may be best suited to take a step back and play in AAA, but he seemed well on his way to developing into a 30 homer, 15 steal type who can hit for average. His rookie showing in Oakland won't help him realize any of that potential this season.

Projected Rotation

Aaron Cook
Ubaldo Jimenez
Greg Smith
Jason Marquis
Jorge de la Rosa/Franklin Morales/Jason Hirsh

The loss of Jeff Francis will create an opening for a prospect with some upside, but it also leaves the Rockies without (arguably) their best starter. Aaron Cook will move from the second spot in the rotation to the top, though he may well be the third best fantasy option the Rockies will carry in their rotation.

In a season where his teammates took a step back, Aaron Cook just kept on ticking. He improved his numbers for the second straight year, posting his second sub-4.00 ERA in four years and setting a career high in strikeouts. If that last statement got you excited, he finished with 96. Cook is a terrific veteran pitcher who is ideally suited to Coors Field because of his heavy sinker (read: groundball tendencies). His lack of production in the strikeout department and relatively high WHIP means that he's a number five fantasy starter.

If, for some reason, fantasy owners feel like they just need a Rockies' starter (scarier words have never been spoken), the only guy they should seriously consider as anything better than a potential number five starter is Ubaldo Jimenez. Jimenez struggled badly with his control last season, walking 103 batters in 198+ innings. Unfortunately, this has been a problem throughout his minor league career, so don't dream that he's going to correct it overnight. On the positive side, he's flat-out filthy when he's on, and his 172 strikeouts last season were for real. He's also only 24, and figures to improve upon that 4.60 ERA and 1.44 WHIP going forward. Jimenez makes for a quality number four starter with the upside of developing into a fantasy number two... Coors limits any starters from being labeled as aces.

Greg Smith looked pretty polished as a rookie with the A's last season. The 25-year-old lefty certainly showed that he has some areas to work on as well, though. While his 111 walks weren't awful, his 111:87 strikeout to walk ratio was. Smith showed that he can be a durable innings eater and kept pretty solid ratios (4.16 ERA, 1.35 WHIP) despite going 7-16 for Oakland. His biggest plus last season was that he limited the league to a .243 average. The biggest negative surrounding him as we enter 2009 is that players generally don't limit hitters to a .243 average in Coors Field. He's a solid prospect. He's still young. There's plenty of upside here. Be careful.... expect a small spike in the win total with the rest of his numbers taking a hit.

Living in St. Louis, I had the "pleasure" of watching Jason Marquis for a number of years. When he's on, he tends to be a league-average starter. When he's not on, he reminds me of my favorite pinball machine. Marquis tends to be really streaky, which makes him a poor play most of the time. Throw in the Coors factor, and your best bet is to forget about him altogether unless you're in a really deep NL-Only League.

Jorge de la Rosa showed drastic improvement as a power pitcher last season, striking out 128 batters in 130 innings of work for the Rockies. All in all, it didn't mean that much, though. De la Rosa still finished the season with a 4.92 ERA and 1.46 WHIP, numbers that really aren't going to help fantasy owners outside of NL-Only Leagues. He throws hard, and when he's keeping the ball down, he's effective. He's not really anyone to target, though.

The primary pitching return in the Jason Jennings trade, Jason Hirsh has regressed significantly over the past two years. After the Astros had built Hirsh up by letting him dominate one level per season before the trade, Hirsh looked pretty mediocre in his first extended shot as a big league starter in 2007. He certainly didn't turn things around last season, as he spent most of the season in Colorado Springs and was flat-out awful (5.80 ERA, 1.68 WHIP, 51:52 K:BB ratio in 99 IP). Somehow, the Rockies determined that this meant he deserved a September callup, which was equally miserable (8.31 ERA, 2.19 WHIP in four games [one start]). The assumption is that he'll need a dominant Spring to earn that fifth starter's job, and it's not off to a good start.

Franklin Morales has to be considered my favorite for that fifth spot entering Spring, even if it's doubtful the Rockies give him a real shot. Though Morales regressed quite a bit himself in 2008, he would bring a second power pitcher to the rotation alongside Jimenez. Like Jimenez, Morales has struggled with his control quite a bit. Though it looked like he might be figuring it out a bit between Tulsa and Colorado Springs in 2007, he lost it in AAA last season, walking 82 batters (against 83 strikeouts) in 110 innings. He has the best stuff of the players vying for the fifth spot, but Colorado will likely start him at AAA and see if he can turn things around a bit.

Bullpen

Closer: Manny Corpas/Huston Street
Setup: Huston Street/Manny Corpas
Other Arms of Note: Taylor Buchholz (injured)
LOOGY: Alan Embree

Now that Panama has made their (expected) early exit from the World Baseball Classic, Manny Corpas and Huston Street expect to battle for the closer's role (and probably the battle to become the most relevant pitcher in fantasy circles on the Rockies) for the rest of the Spring. Taylor Buchholz is out four to six weeks with elbow soreness, leaving that potential third option out of the picture. We're going with Corpas.

Manny Corpas proved he could dominate as a closer in the second half of 2007, but a rough start last season saw him yield the ninth inning duties to veteran Brian Fuentes. Though Corpas looked significantly better after the break, Fuentes was lights out in holding down the job. Though he doesn't look like he'll ever develop into the strikeout an inning pitcher that fantasy owners are generally looking for in a closer, he has shown the ability to dominate consistently in the minors and he's coming into the Spring completely healthy. In fact, he looks to be in better shape than he has been in either of the past two seasons. A speculative closer at best, Corpas shouldn't be drafted any higher than the late teen rounds (or, to be more precise, the early twenties).

Pitching in Colorado is an entirely different animal than throwing in a pitcher-friendly environment like Oakland. Huston Street may well find that out... particularly if he looks anything like he did last season. Street pitched poorly enough down the stretch in Oakland so that he was removed from teh closer's role late and moved in the offseason. He's off to a horrible start this Spring in his efforts to lock down the job. So far, he's given up 6 runs (5 earned) in an inning and a third.

There are a couple of different reasons that casual fans don't know Taylor Buchholz as well as his brother Clay. For one, Clay pitches for the Boston Red Sox, meaning he comes from one of the two teams that you're constantly going to hear hype about. For the other, Clay has been a significantly better prospect. Taylor took a big step forward last year, though. Emerging as a quality setup man, Buchholz amped up his strikeout production a bit last season (56 in 66 IP) and looked much less hittable than he has been in the past, limiting the league to a .188 average. Unfortunately, his Spring has been cut short by some soreness in his elbow, and he's expected to be out for at least the first few weeks of the regular season. Despite all of this, Buchholz is still worth a shot late in deeper leagues as someone who could well take over in the ninth inning if Corpas and Street both stumble. In leagues that use holds as a category, he's a quality middle relief option who will keep a WHIP in the 1.10 range and a solid ERA.

Though he filled in as Oakland's closer in 2007 when Street was injured, Alan Embree hasn't really shown great overall production since he was last used as a true LOOGY (i.e., someone who's being used predominantly to face lefties). With a handful of decent options (figure a rotation loser, Buchholz [when healthy], Jason Grilli, Ryan Speier), the assumption is that the Rockies will try and push Embree back into the role where he excels most. He'll make for a solid pickup in leagues that use holds.

On the Whole

I think we have our first team that will have their Over/Under set lower than last year's win total. Generally speaking, the Rockies have quite a few youngsters who should show improvement this season with guys like Tulowitzki, Iannetta, and Jimenez. However, there are also a handful of veterans who figure to taper off a bit. Simply put, the depth of talent offensively is there, though they appear to lack any truly elite bats in the lineup. While I really like some of the young starting pitching (Jimenez/Morales) and think that the bullpen will be better than advertised, it simply doesn't look like they'll have enough starting depth to net them more than 70 wins. With Francis, I could see it. With Holliday, I could definitely see it. Without either of them, Colorado appears to be in some real trouble.

Over/Under: 70 Wins

I'll be running the over/under throughout the team previews. We'd love to hear your feedback. Can the Colorado Rockies avoid a -4 win differential and win 70 games or more this season? Why, or why not?

Next up: Kansas City Royals (75-87)

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