First off, welcome to the new Picks page! Since our inception over 20 years back, we've fielded a ton of requests for a prop picks section. Being a fantasy site first, it was put on the back-burner for years. Now that fantasy and betting have intersected in a ton of new ways, it made sense to finally get it done! Months in the making, we leveraged our in-house player prediction models/algorithms to analyze and curate the best possible picks available. From matchup stats and trends to weather and lineup protection, we've baked in a ton of key factors with one solitary goal -- find weaknesses in the market and exploit it to your benefit.
So, how exactly do our picks work? Let's get into some of the details...
Prop basics
Every pick starts out with a header section that lists the prop type, side and line (in this case, over 0.5 HRs). Immediately to the right are the odds and sportsbook we recommend most (in this example, Caesars). Below that, you'll find the rating of the pick (from 1 to 5 stars). On any given day, there are likely to be a few 5-Star prop picks. Those top picks are listed first and you can always use the filters to show just a specific rating.
By default, the page shows picks from upcoming games over the next 2 days - the date of each contest is shown in the header. If you'd rather only see today's picks, simply choose "Today" from the filter menu.
Odds and EV
We assess pick value a few different ways but our primary method is to compare our prop projection to the sportsbooks with the best odds (and implied probabilities). When there's a big gap between the two, the positive Expected Value (+EV) goes up and gives you a much better chance of maximizing profit.
In this example, we predicted that Aaron Judge has a 42% chance of going yard. The book highlighted in yellow (Caesars) is offering odds that imply Judge only has a 9.5% chance of hitting a homer. That gap is a potential weakness in the market -- time is of the essence, though. Books shift their lines all the time due to lineup changes, betting patterns, weather, etc. So, when you spot a super high value pick that aligns with your thinking, it's probably a smart bet to place.
Remember, betting is a statistical endurance sport. Anything can happen with a single bet. But, if you stick to a sound strategy and let the math and probabilities take over, your chances of winning go way up. Don't let emotions or fandom get in the way - bet the numbers, not your hunches!
"Recent" and "Matchup" sections
Part of our prediction process involves a thorough dive into the nuances of recent performance and matchups. For starters, the "Recent" section breaks down the O/U results over the last 5 and 15 games (e.g., tally of games where they've had at least one hit).
It also gives you a quick look at their prop probabilities over the last two seasons. Trends (short and long term) are everything in prop betting.
The percentages you see under each time frame can be quickly compared to our prop predictions. So, in the example here, if our Hit prediction was 55% and the 5 and 15-day trends are quite a bit higher, it should add an extra layer of confidence in the pick.
When it comes to matchups, some folks may tell you that batter versus pitcher data doesn't mean all that much. Too random or not enough significant data. With super small sample sizes, we tend to agree. However, right around ten plate appearances, tendencies start to surface... and most of the time, they're actionable.
Anyone who's played ball can tell ya that a pitcher's mechanics and stuff play a big role in creating that comfort factor at the plate (or lack thereof). Predictable results tend to follow and usually show up in the stats (even in the form of quality ABs that still resulted in an out).
FAQ
How many props do you track?
For now, we're mostly focused on HR, Hits and SBs. We'll be rolling out more prop options as the season progresses.
Are these picks free?
We offer a few free picks a day but to get access to the cream of the crop, a monthly subscription is required - you can cancel anytime.
How often are the picks updated?
They're updated all day, every day. Some of the big intraday factors that can trigger a shake-up include: matchup changes, bad weather, nagging injuries (to the prop player or opposing pitcher), significant shift in odds, etc.
| 64%-185
| 65%
| 51%
