Stolen Base Predictions

Find out which batters are most likely to swipe a bag each day of the MLB season.

How to Read our SB Predictions

In the table above, the two key columns are "SB Predictions" and "SB H2H" (highlighted in yellow). SB Predictions are our probability that the batter will have at least one steal in the game. SB H2H (head-to-head) is actual, historical data -- it's all the times the batter reached against the pitcher AND successfully stole a bag. So if you see a SB H2H of 40%, that means 40% of the time the batter reached base, they managed to swipe a bag. Anything over 25% is quite good. SB H2H values have been incorporated into the overall SB prediction percentages (when the batter and pitcher have faced each other).

Under the best SB scenarios (great basestealer, long windup form the pitcher, poor-throwing catcher, etc), SB predictions tend to top out around 40% -- a 65-steal season equates to about a 40% SB rate for each game. With MLB betting (props or otherwise), a 40% probability rate equates to implied odds of about +150. However, odds for SB props are usually +200 and longer.

OBP boosts SB rates

You can't steal first base, though, right? That's where OBP comes into play. Basestealers that historically reach first base at a high rate against a pitcher usually have at least one extra chance to run the bases in a game. That's a big deal, especially if the runner knows (and is confident with) the pitcher's windup and timing. Our SB Predictions factor in OBP rates for each day/game chosen.

Other factors that impact stolen bases

Stealing opportunities obviously don't happen in a vacuum. The game will often dictate if it's "acceptable" to steal. If a team is up (or down) big, baserunneres will usually put on the brakes (unless you're Rickey and the unwritten rules don't always apply). The only possible exceptions are games that are expected to be high scoring (eg, at Coors) and/or it's the first few innings of a game.

Another key factor that impacts SB opps is the plate discipline of subsequent batters. If the next guy in the lineup routinely goes deep in counts and is comfortable hitting with 2 strikes, that's awesome for runners. As a bonus, many seasoned hitters actually take a pitch to let a runner swipe a bag to get into scoring position. That's sadly a rare trait these days though.

How to bet on Stolen Base Targets

As mentioned, the betting odds on nearly all SB props are +200 or larger. If a prob bet is at +200, a bet of $100 would score you $200 (double your entry). Not all sportsbooks offer SB props, or a bunch of them. The major ones like MGM and Fanduel typically do and odds for stolen bases tend to vary quite a bit more than other props so be sure to shop around. The lines for SB props are always the same: 0.5 SBs. You'll bet on either the over or under. A bet on the over wins when a batter steals at least one base. Simple as that. That's why this one's a sneaky favorite for a lot of folks.

Icons explained...

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• weather forecast for first pitch (hover over for details)
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• 0 wind direction and strength in mph (pointing up = center field)
• more in the last column, the link to the batter v pitcher page that includes our Ownage Chart, matchup ranks, AB logs, predictions and more

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