since 2002

Austin Riley or Rafael Devers

3B Age: 28 Bats: R Throws: R

This Season

2025 Projection
BARHRRBISBOPS
.2728730802.848

Rank (preseason)

38 ADP
3 3B

Career Stats

Austin Riley
ABBAOBPOPS
2728 .272 .338 .840
Last 3 Years
YrABRHRRBISBBAOBPOPS
2022 615 89 38 93 2 .273 .349 .877
2023 636 115 37 97 3 .281 .345 .861
2024 425 62 19 56 0 .256 .322 .783

Key Splits

 ABBAOBPOPS
home1302.283.348.878
road1426.262.329.805
day844.252.311.771
night1884.281.350.871
vs RHP2108.269.333.821
vs LHP620.281.355.903
none on 1498 .278 .335 .832
risp 391 .274 .366 .878
loaded 42 .190 .291 .696
April 358 .260 .348 .801
May 429 .280 .338 .848
June 509 .259 .322 .795
July 473 .292 .348 .955
Aug 488 .289 .349 .867
Sept 428 .250 .323 .769
3B Age: 28Bats: L Throws: R

This Season

2025 Projection
BARHRRBISBOPS
.2808930924.866

Rank (preseason)

29 ADP
4 3B

Career Stats

Rafael Devers
ABBAOBPOPS
3802 .279 .345 .856
Last 3 Years
YrABRHRRBISBBAOBPOPS
2022 555 84 27 88 3 .295 .358 .879
2023 580 89 33 100 5 .271 .351 .851
2024 525 87 28 83 3 .272 .354 .870

Key Splits

 ABBAOBPOPS
home1832.291.356.876
road1970.268.335.837
day1202.317.378.942
night2600.262.330.816
vs RHP2591.286.356.909
vs LHP1211.265.321.740
none on 2089 .276 .332 .843
risp 499 .281 .409 .924
loaded 92 .283 .311 .833
April 534 .270 .341 .819
May 630 .295 .343 .908
June 588 .282 .355 .889
July 531 .322 .383 1.008
Aug 743 .240 .312 .759
Sept 704 .271 .344 .780

So, Who's Better?

Going into the 2025 season, we have Riley slotted as the #3-ranked third baseman (with an ADP of 38). Compare that with Devers, who's #4 at the position (ADP of 29). Based on just those full-season projections, expect Devers to be the slightly better fantasy performer. Nothing's that easy, though - let's dig into the most important stats for both daily and roto leagues...

DFS Contests

Daily lineups are all about timing, short-term trends and matchups, even among highly-ranked players. With these two guys, keep an eye on the following splits...

Riley tends to perform better when:
  • Playing at home - his career OPS when playing in front of the home crowd is .878 (.805 on the road)
  • It's a night game split alert - his lifetime OPS when playing under the lights is .871 (.771 in day games)
  • Facing a lefty - Riley has a career OPS of .903 against southpaws (.821 vs righties)
Devers tends to perform better when:
  • It's a day game split alert - his lifetime OPS when playing under the sun is .942 (.816 in night games)
  • Facing a righty - Devers has a career OPS of .909 against righties (.740 vs southpaws)

On any given day (see today's matchups), check to see how many of these OPS "bonuses" apply. If most or all are in play, highly consider going in that player's direction.

Roto Leagues

On the flip side, rotisserie is a marathon and MUCH more predictable. Most major trends tend to repeat, especially with established players.

For starters, Riley is a 28-year old righty with the potential to produce a slash of .270/90/35/85 (BA/R/HR/RBI)... with basically no steals a year. So, that's the big downside here. With regard to OPS, a projected level of ~.850 means he'll inflict plenty of damage across all extra base cats. In baseball years, he's pretty established so don't expect major jumps in his stat ceiling (staying consistent is the name of the game for vets).

Now, with Devers - he's a 28-year old lefty with .280/90/35/95 splits... with virtually no SBs a season. You'll need to make up that speed gap elsewhere. OPS levels are likely to end up around ~.870, so a bunch of consistent extra-base damage. At his age, he's a legit veteran so, stat-wise, we pretty much know what to expect (or hope to get).

Overall, these two have a bunch in common so, over the course of a full season, you'll get a similar amount of fantasy points from each. Draft for value, not strictly points.

Related

Rafael Devers
or
Manny Machado

What's your take?