Harper has faced Ray 13 times, with a total OPS of 1.356. Conversely, Alonso only has 2 plate appearances against Festa. Since Harper has good matchup numbers today, lean towards him.
Weather impact
Heavy wind (blowing out), hot temps, ballpark elevation, etc can all have a big impact on long fly balls. An extra few feet can be the difference between warning track and a 3-run dinger. In Harper's game, our HRForce Index at first pitch is 0.8 [20% less HRs expected]. Meanwhile, Alonso will be playing under an HRForce of 0.8 [20% less HRs expected]. With equal HRForce values, ball flight conditions are roughly the same in both games. So, weather's a draw.
Weekly Roster Lock Leagues
For those of you in leagues that require you to set your lineup before the start of each week, day offs can be a bummer. Everything else being equal, give the edge to players that play at least one more game a week. For the M-F week that includes 4/16/25, Harper has 7 games scheduled, while Alonso has 7. With the same number of games, they roughly carry the same potential value for the week.
