So, should you choose Freeman or Harper (9/27/24)?
Batter vs pitcher
Today, Freeman has the better matchup with an OPS of 1.411 against Quantrill (18 plate appearances). That's compared to Harper's OPS of .752 versus Williams (24 PA). That's a huge difference, definitely start Freeman.
Weather impact
Heavy wind (blowing out), hot temps, ballpark elevation, etc can all have a big impact on long fly balls. An extra few feet can be the difference between warning track and a 3-run dinger. In Freeman's game, our HRForce Index at first pitch is 1.2 (20% more HRs expected). Meanwhile, Harper will be playing under an HRForce of 1.2 (20% more HRs expected). With equal HRForce values, ball flight conditions are roughly the same in both games. So, weather's a draw.
Weekly Roster Lock Leagues
For those of you in leagues that require you to set your lineup before the start of each week, day offs can be a bummer. Everything else being equal, give the edge to players that play at least one more game a week. For the M-F week that includes 9/27/24, Freeman has 6 games scheduled, while Harper has 6. With the same number of games, they roughly carry the same potential value for the week.
