So, should you choose Devers or Machado (4/20/25)?
Batter vs pitcher
Machado has faced Valdez 8 times, with a total OPS of 1.042. Conversely, Devers has no plate appearances against Burke. Since Machado has good matchup numbers today, lean towards him.
Weather impact
Heavy wind (blowing out), hot temps, ballpark elevation, etc can all have a big impact on long fly balls. An extra few feet can be the difference between warning track and a 3-run dinger. In Devers's game, our HRForce Index at first pitch is 0.8 [20% less HRs expected]. Meanwhile, Machado will be playing under an HRForce of 1.7 [70% more HRs expected (roof likely open)]. So, long flies will travel a bit further in Machado's game. Weather edge goes to him.
Weekly Roster Lock Leagues
For those of you in leagues that require you to set your lineup before the start of each week, day offs can be a bummer. Everything else being equal, give the edge to players that play at least one more game a week. For the M-F week that includes 4/20/25, Devers has 6 games scheduled, while Machado has 6. With the same number of games, they roughly carry the same potential value for the week.
