QB Matchups

Check out the best quarterback matchups each week of the NFL season. DFS values below are projected. All other QB stats and team rankings are from this season.

What Makes a Good Quarterback Matchup?

In simple terms, it's usually a heat check of a QB's offense combined with the opposing defense. The more porous the defense, the better the QB stats (on average). On the flip side, an extremely stout defense usually trumps a great offense (sort of like how an elite starting pitcher in the playoffs often shuts down the best of offenses). Nothing's that easy, though. Let's take a closer look at some of the more important factors...

QB stats and trends

Of course, the single most important factor on how many points a QB scores in a week is... the QB itself. Like all sports and positions, quarterbacks have hot and cold streaks. Being a team-heavy sport, a good chunk of their stats rely of how well he's synced with top receivers. Early in the season, you'll get a larger percentage of missed routes and drops (eg, receivers not cutting or going where/when they should). After a few weeks in, the rate of broken plays typically goes way down (obviously better for QB stats). Confidence, like with all things, plays a factor. Good begets good so when a QB is on a hot streak (at least a couple above-average games), give him an extra vote of confidence for the start.

Offensive line's protection

It's tough to hit a moving target on even the most perfect of routes if there's no time. That's where the O-line comes into play. There's a huge correlation with how well an offensive line keeps the opposing team out of the pocket and the performance of their QB. It's not unheard of for quarterbacks to get a 20%+ boost in offensive production when an O-line markedly improves in the offseason or with a trade (particularly blind side linemen). So, keep a close eye on the injury and transaction wire before your QB's start -- it could make all the difference.

Weather Plays a Big Role Too

Heavy snow is a QB's kryptonite

Everyone's seen a snow game where there's a pile of powder and it's coming down in sheets. Sure, they'll constantly plow it but the impact to the game is immense. Heavy snow can decrease offensive production by as much as 25%. It's tough to run, cut, throw, catch, etc, etc. Basically, every offensive play is negatively impacted. So, when the cold weather kicks in, ALWAYS check the weather forecast for the risk of heavy snow (lighter snow basically has no impact).

Heavy Rain is a risk factor too

Any kind of rain negatively impact offensive production (ball gets slippery), usually to the tune of a 5-10% drop in scoring. That's relatively minor and not a reason to sit or switch out a a QB. When it's raining buckets, however, definitely heed caution - a 15%-20% drop in offense is typical. The number of drops from receivers spike and errant throws are commonplace -- if you have a better or similar option, highly consider it.

Don't forget about the wind

A pigskin football isn't all that heavy and when the wind is gusting at 20 mph or more, it WILL considerably move the ball. So, even perfect passes could miss their mark and a chip shot field goal possibly trail off wide. Wind direction matters but the reality is most stadiums experience a fair amount of swirling or wind unpredictability so it's best not to try to play the team "with the wind", even with in-game props. Wind is finicky and flips on a dime. Finally, when the wind is relatively mild (10 mph or less), it's much less of an issue -- most players compensate for lower-level wind quite easily.

Our Weather Index, TDForce

To better quantify how weather can/will impact a game, we created a proprietary weather index that tracks all the factors and impact percentages above. Called TDForce, it tosses all the weather conditions into a pretty complicated model to create an index value. A value of 1 means no change to the average game (eg, a sunny, 85° game). A TDForce of 1.2 means 20% more TDs could be seen (perfect playing conditions). A value of 0.7 means a 30% drop in touchdowns/scoring is likely (heavy snow, tough wind chill, etc). See the "TDF" column in the table above for all the latest weather readings.

Icons and abbreviations explained...

• weather hasn't been collected yet
• weather forecast for first pitch (hover over for details)
• stadium has a fixed roof or is closed due to poor weather
• 0 wind direction and strength in mph (pointing left or right means it's towards one end zone or the other)
• TDF TDForce (abbr TDF) is our weather index that predicts how many more (or less) touchdowns could be seen due to weather (temperature, rain, wind, direction, elevation, etc)

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