TE Matchups

Check out the best tight end matchups each week of the NFL season. DFS values below are projected. All other TE stats and team rankings are from this season.

Analyzing Tight End Matchups

We've already touched on some of the more important factors that boost WR matchups -- those include O-line protection, opposing pass defense, weather effects and more. Of course, tight ends are a different breed than wide receivers. They make the tough catches up the middle and are more impacted by roving linebackers. Unless we're talking about elite TEs, they inherently accumulate less yards and TDs. Let's dig into more details...

QB Tendencies

Simply put, not all QBs (or offenses) prioritize tight ends. Some only go to them on plays where a first down is critical. Otherwise, they lean heavily on wide receivers and the run game. So, unless your TE will consistently get at least a handful of targets a game, you may want to look elsewhere or adjust your draft rankings accordingly.

QBs that tend to throw to tight ends at a below-average clip include Daniel Jones, Tua Tagovailoa, Bo Nix and Caleb Williams (all <15.5% target rates). Quarterbacks with the highest TE target rates include: Drake Maye, Mahomes, Lamar Jackson and Kyler Murray (all >29% target rates). So, some QBs are more that twice as likely to throw to a tight end than others. That's a pretty big deal.

Pass Defense Matters

A TE-heavy game plan is great and all but if they're up against a strong pass defense, that can go by the waist-side real quick. We've listed the top defenses against the pass in the table above (ranked by passing yards given up last season). The Eagles, Titans, Jets, Dolphins and Packers are all in the top 5. On the flip side, the Panthers, Jags, Saints, Colts and Cowboys all allow a ton of yards through the air. Based on each week's matchup, we adjust the projected DFS points for each TE accordingly. Remember, even elite TEs can get shut down by a stingy defense. It's always a risky bet to go against a (smothering) tide.

Bad Weather Can Help TEs

When there's any kind of rain around, it usually drops the total points in a game by ~10%. As the rain gets stronger, offensive strategy also tends to shift to shorter, higher-percentage passes. That's where tight ends start to play a larger role. They run the tough routes and quick cuts near the line. They also usually have better hands, especially in a crowd. So, when the weather is miserable, TEs targets usually go up a fair percentage. So, even though it's kinda counter-intuitive, you may want to prioritize your tight ends during winter/rainy games. Be sure to check out our NFL weather reports before locking in your lineups.

Icons and abbreviations explained...

• weather hasn't been collected yet
• weather forecast for first pitch (hover over for details)
• stadium has a fixed roof or is closed due to poor weather
• 0 wind direction and strength in mph (pointing left or right means it's towards one end zone or the other)
• TDF TDForce (abbr TDF) is our weather index that predicts how many more (or less) touchdowns could be seen due to weather (temperature, rain, snow, wind, direction, etc)

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