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Home Run Predictions

Find out which batters are most likely to hit a HR each day of the MLB season.

Most likely to homer (3/25/26)

Batter	Pitcher	Game	HRF	HR Pred	Trend	Odds	AB	H	HR	BA	OBP	OPS
A. Judge, OF (R)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	36%	0.5	--	7	3	2	.429	.556	1.985	more
G. Stanton, DH (R)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	23%	0.5	--	6	1	0	.167	.167	.334	more
J. Chisholm, OF (L)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	19%	0.5	--	13	3	0	.231	.286	.517	more
C. Bellinger, OF (L)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	19%	0.5	--	29	6	0	.207	.233	.474	more
B. Rice, 1B (L)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	18%	0.5	--	3	1	0	.333	.333	.666	more
R. Devers, 3B (L)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	16%	0.5	--	9	3	1	.333	.333	1.000	more
H. Ramos, OF (R)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	15%	0.5	--	8	0	0	.000	.111	.111	more
W. Adames, SS (R)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	15%	0.5	--	6	2	0	.333	.333	1.000	more
M. Chapman, 3B (R)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	15%	0.5	--	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000	more
A. Wells, C (L)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	14%	0.5	--	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000	more
R. McMahon, 3B (L)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	14%	0.5	--	42	13	1	.310	.370	.822	more
T. Grisham, OF (L)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	14%	0.5	--	21	6	0	.286	.273	.654	more
H. Bader, OF (R)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	13%	0.5	--	9	2	0	.222	.300	.522	more
J. Lee, OF (L)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	8%	0.5	--	never faced
P. Bailey, C (B)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	7%	0.5	--	5	1	0	.200	.333	.533	more
L. Arraez, 1B (L)	M. Fried (L)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	4%	0.5	--	11	4	0	.364	.462	.826	more
J. Caballero, SS (R)	L. Webb (R)	@ 15 NYASFN	1.3	3%	0.5	--	3	0	0	.000	.000	.000	more

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How to read our HR Predictions

Probabilities and Odds

For starters, the two key columns (highlighted in yellow) are our home run predictions for each batter along with the current sportsbook odds for hitting 1 HR or more (taking the "over" side on a 0.5 HR line). The HR prediction is the probability (from 1 - 100%) that the batter will go yard in the game... against the starting pitcher OR any number of relievers. Under ideal conditions, HR probabilities top out at around 45% (we're talkin' Aaron Judge against a SP he owns in a bandbox with the wind blowing out). A 45% probability also equates to odds of around +115.

Speaking of odds, nearly all HR props are underdog bets (positive odds). So, in the image here with +430 odds, a $100 bet will net you a cool $430 if your guy goes yard. Of course, the longer the odds, the tougher the HR conditions. Check out our MLB Odds page for a more general overview about how lines and odds work.

Weather impact on HRs

As you probably know (statistically or intuitively), weather plays a big role with the way a ball flies. Optimal weather conditions (high temps, wind blowing out, high elevation, etc) can increase the flight of a ball an extra 20+ feet. That can be huge and all the difference between a warning track fly and a ball a few rows into the bleachers.

To quantify that effect, we created a weather index that tracks all the key factors for each game and combines 'em into an index factor. Called HRForce, a reading of 1.5 is pretty high and means 50% more homers are expected versus the average. In the table above, the HRForce for each game is incorporated into the HR predictions (it's boosted by a relative percentage).

Icons and abbreviations explained...

• weather hasn't been collected yet
• weather forecast for first pitch (hover over for details)
• stadium has a fixed roof or is closed due to poor weather
• 0 wind direction and strength in mph (pointing up = center field)
• HRF HRForce (abbr HRF) is our weather index that predicts how many more (or less) HRs could be hit due to weather (temperature, rain, wind, direction, elevation, etc)
• more in the last column, link to the full batter vs pitcher page that includes our Ownage Chart, matchup ranks, AB logs, predictions and more

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