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NFL Props and Projections: Passing TDs

Find out which QBs are most likely to cover (or miss) the line each week.

Click a player's name to view detailed prop info!
Week 6
Passing TD Props: Week 6 (2026)
Player Game
TDF
Prop
Proj
Odds
Trend
 Opp
v pass
v run
 Kickoff
Sam Darnold, QB @ 7 SEADEN 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.6 +125 o
1.5
 DEN 9 29 Thu 8:15 pm more
Bo Nix, QB @ 7 SEADEN 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.2 +162 o
1.5
 SEA 1 11 Thu 8:15 pm more
C.J. Stroud, QB @ 20 HOUJAX 1.0 1.5 Pass TDs 1.2 +118 o
1.5
 JAX 30 1 Sun 9:30 am more
Trevor Lawrence, QB @ 20 HOUJAX 1.0 1.5 Pass TDs 1.8 +122 o
1.5
 HOU 23 3 Sun 9:30 am more
Bryce Young, QB @ 5 CARPHI 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 2.0 +152 o
1.5
 PHI 26 19 Sun 1:00 pm more
Jalen Hurts, QB @ 5 CARPHI 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.5 +178 o
1.5
 CAR 22 31 Sun 1:00 pm more
Lamar Jackson, QBQ @ 9 BALCLE 1.2 -- 1.5 --
2
 CLE 13 18 Sun 1:00 pm more
Deshaun Watson, QB @ 9 BALCLE 1.2 1.5 Pass TDs 1.3 +138 o
1.5
 BAL 18 12 Sun 1:00 pm more
Tyler Shough, QB @ 7 NONYG 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.8 +100 o
1.5
 NYG 7 24 Sun 1:00 pm more
Jameis Winston, QB @ 7 NONYG 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.5 +118 o
1.5
 NO 11 30 Sun 1:00 pm more
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Caleb Williams, QBQ @ 15 CHIATL n/a 1.5 Pass TDs 1.2 -148 o
1.5
 ATL 27 4 Sun 1:00 pm more
Michael Penix Jr., QB @ 15 CHIATL n/a 1.5 Pass TDs 1.1 -130 o
1.5
 CHI 12 9 Sun 1:00 pm more
Geno Smith, QB @ 7 NYJNE 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.2 +194 o
1.5
 NE 10 6 Sun 1:00 pm more
Drake Maye, QB @ 7 NYJNE 0.9 1.5 Pass TDs 1.6 -144 o
1.5
 NYJ 4 19 Sun 1:00 pm more
Aaron Rodgers, QB @ 17 PITTB 0.8 1.5 Pass TDs 1.9 +124 o
1.5
 TB 20 2 Sun 1:00 pm more
Jalon Daniels, QB @ 17 PITTB 0.8 0.5 Pass TDs 0.8 -275 o
0.5
 PIT 16 13 Sun 1:00 pm more
Cam Ward, QB @ 6 TENIND n/a 0.5 Pass TDs 0.8 -260 o
0.5
 IND 28 27 Sun 1:00 pm more
Daniel Jones, QB @ 6 TENIND n/a 1.5 Pass TDs 0.8 +100 o
1.5
 TEN 14 17 Sun 1:00 pm more
Jacoby Brissett, QB @ 0 ARILAR n/a 1.5 Pass TDs 1.7 +128 o
1.5
 LAR 2 26 Sun 4:05 pm more
Matthew Stafford, QB @ 0 ARILAR n/a 2.5 Pass TDs 2.1 +104 o
2.5
 ARI 25 23 Sun 4:05 pm more
Josh Allen, QB @ 3 BUFLV n/a 1.5 Pass TDs 1.6 -132 o
1.5
 LV 24 28 Sun 4:25 pm more
Kirk Cousins, QB @ 3 BUFLV n/a 1.5 Pass TDs 2.4 -162 o
1.5
 BUF 31 15 Sun 4:25 pm more
Justin Herbert, QB @ 10 LACKC 1.3 0.5 Pass TDs 1.0 -215 o
0.5
 KC 19 7 Sun 4:25 pm more
Patrick Mahomes, QB @ 10 LACKC 1.3 1.5 Pass TDs 2.1 -130 o
1.5
 LAC 6 21 Sun 4:25 pm more
Dak Prescott, QB @ 10 DALGB 1.1 1.5 Pass TDs 1.7 -172 o
1.5
 GB 5 24 Sun 8:20 pm more
Jordan Love, QB @ 10 DALGB 1.1 1.5 Pass TDs 2.1 -188 o
1.5
 DAL 21 32 Sun 8:20 pm more
Jayden Daniels, QB @ 12 WASSF 1.1 1.5 Pass TDs 1.0 +118 o
1.5
 SF 8 10 Mon 8:15 pm more
Brock Purdy, QB @ 12 WASSF 1.1 2.5 Pass TDs 2.6 +146 o
2.5
 WAS 29 8 Mon 8:15 pm more
Odds last updated: 10/15/26 10:07 am EST

How we calculate our Passing TD projections

Very few things in sports are as cool as a QB tossing a perfect ball to a receiver for a touchdown. Predicting when and how often it'll happen is the challenge, though, right? Our passing TD prediction model aims to give you the upper hand with that - it takes into account the following: recent QB stats, opposing defense (against the pass), weather, receiver options, stadium effects and much more.

Opposing defense vs the pass

Even the best passing game plan can get stifled by a stout defense. A smothering D-line combined with a talented secondary makes life difficult on any QB. Less pocket time and receiver space obviously suppresses passing TDs so we adjust our projections accordingly.

Weather depresses passing TD opps

When it’s pouring rain, most teams tend to prioritize the run over the pass. Better ball security and possession control. That’s not a hard and fast rule and depends on the QB and/or RB talent, but be sure to check on the weather before a big game. Our NFL weather index, TDForce, quantifies the projected TD boost or loss due solely to weather. That’s incorporated into the QB TD prop projections on this page.

Receiver options

Even elite quarterbacks have their favorite receivers. Their timing is synced, cuts are crisp and it markedly increases the chances of a successful connection (and TD). If a key receiver is out or not 100%, that can obviously ding a QB’s stat line. Our prediction model takes that into account.

How books set Passing TD lines

As with all player props, each sportsbook has their own formula for setting the TD pass O/U line. They tend to keep the odds fairly tight (between +150 and -150) and adjust the line to accommodate that.

For example, a top-ranked QB that routinely tosses a few TDs a game is likely to have a pass TD prop line of around 2.5. A less prolific QB might have a line of 1.5. Both prop bets could have similar odds - again, it’s the line that shifts more than rhe O/U.

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